Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Aug 08 14:43:17 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be clear, my position on the Trump Electoral College stuff is: 1) It's much too early to say with any precision what the magnitude of Trump's Electoral College advantage (or disadvantage) will be & will continue to be too early until roughly the conventions in 2020. (cont…) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 8, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yep, that's a valid concern. As a default, polling errors do not tend to be correlated from cycle to cycle but there were problems in some of the same types of states in 2018 that there were in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 8, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) To the extent we have any sense of direction about it, the evidence (from polls and midterm results) is fairly ambiguous anyway. 3) Our empirical prior is that Trump is more likely to be helped than hurt by the Electoral College, but probably not to the same magnitude as '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 8, 2019 Hibernated