Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Mon Aug 05 21:20:56 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I should clarify: I think Trump was being underestimated by the markets before, and the price now (50%-ish) seems fine, more or less. But I don't really see how his circumstances have *improved*. His approval rating is unchanged and the risk of recession/economic headwinds is ↑. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure why prices on Trump re-election at betting markets (and I think this is matched by the conventional wisdom writ large) have shifted strongly in his favor over the past few months when the fundamentals don't seem to have changed much. https://t.co/qpmkmQfImF https://t.co/b5tKsGF3me — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dmorey Certainly possible, but I don't think anything particularly unexpected has happened in the D primary so far. If bettors are surprised that Dems are attacking one another and shifting to the left, they haven't watched many primaries before! And Biden is still leading. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 5, 2019 Hibernated