Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Aug 01 15:41:26 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Probably something to that. And there are some states (GA, AZ, TX being the most relevant examples) where the voting-eligible population is a lot more purple than the "likely voter" electorate, so Democrats could expect especially large gains from turnout there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Congressional districts have become more polarized because of voter self-sorting and gerrymandering. But if you look at the swing districts, the more moderate/centrist candidates generally over-perform there. We CERTAINLY saw that in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Also, in general, the Democratic base is larger, so a base-only strategy should work better for Democrats than Trump, although Trump's Electoral College advantages offset a lot of that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2019 Hibernated