Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Aug 01 15:37:29 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Congressional districts have become more polarized because of voter self-sorting and gerrymandering. But if you look at the swing districts, the more moderate/centrist candidates generally over-perform there. We CERTAINLY saw that in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's actually not much empirical evidence for the extremely fashionable view that elections have become about turnout rather than persuasion. If you look at, e.g., how moderate vs. "extreme" voting records affect races for Congress, nothing really has changed. — PolitiTweet.org

All the talk about the popularity/unpopularity of policy is pretty misguided. This is an age of polarization. Peopl… https://t.co/DjMffzUZyF

Posted Aug. 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Probably something to that. And there are some states (GA, AZ, TX being the most relevant examples) where the voting-eligible population is a lot more purple than the "likely voter" electorate, so Democrats could expect especially large gains from turnout there. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 1, 2019 Hibernated