Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 17:16:56 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn And yet your article is delving into detail on Waukesha County (based on one Marquette poll?) and Miami-Dade like it's the day before the election. It's offering ridiculous levels of precision that could fool readers who don't know better into disregarding the huge uncertainties. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn My point is that **any** set of assumptions at this stage is inherently imprecise because the election isn't for a year and a freaking half and so debating which assumptions are the least-worst is irrelevant. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Well if you want to be empirical about it the president's approval rating at the midterm (which is the data you're using) historically has almost no correlation with the election outcome 2 years later. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated