Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 14:40:37 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Q seems a bit outlier-ish, but it's usually a mistake to dismiss a poll as an outlier rather than averaging it in with your other data. My broader point to other Nate is the data is messy/noisy, when Electoral College analysis is something that requires a -=LOT=- of precision. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Well, it depends on what you mean by "dramatically". He'll probably win OH. But as a general rule, partisan leans are somewhat mean-reverting, so e.g. states where Trump way over-performed in 2016 are places where you might expect him to give a point or two back in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Your hypothesis relies on data that's (i) 8 months old (ii) was collected mostly online (fine but not gold-standard) (iii) involves a lot of statistical extrapolation (iv) is calibrated to 2018 rather than 2020 turnout (v) is based on approval rather than head-to-head matchups. — PolitiTweet.org

My hypothesis is that the president's approval rating in Ohio is probably better than this one poll in Quinnipiac,… https://t.co/aHQpJJz8FL

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated