Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Thu Jul 25 14:09:07 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Well, it depends on what you mean by "dramatically". He'll probably win OH. But as a general rule, partisan leans are somewhat mean-reverting, so e.g. states where Trump way over-performed in 2016 are places where you might expect him to give a point or two back in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It just seems like there's a lot of ambiguity around your hypothesis, which of course there there is because it's 16 months until the election, and we don't know who the D nominee will be, or what turnout will look like, and you're determined to cherry-pick your way around it. — PolitiTweet.org

Morning Consult is Trump's worst pollster right now, with a 40% approval among RVs. They also don't have state-by-s… https://t.co/Du88eFfVIs

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Q seems a bit outlier-ish, but it's usually a mistake to dismiss a poll as an outlier rather than averaging it in with your other data. My broader point to other Nate is the data is messy/noisy, when Electoral College analysis is something that requires a -=LOT=- of precision. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 25, 2019 Hibernated