Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2020

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Tue Jul 09 18:26:19 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

McConnell has the worst approval ratings in the country. He will probably win on the basis of partisanship, especially with Trump turnout. But it's not a foregone conclusion and his status as party leader could give him problems that a "generic" Republican might not have. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think McGrath has a shot. — PolitiTweet.org

@EsotericCD who are these people who think McGrath has a shot?

Posted July 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's gonna be one of those races where the polling could show a close race, but the fundamentals strongly favor McConnell and McConnell probably wins. But if you're not providing for, say, a 15-20% chance of McGrath winning, your mental and/or statistical model is overconfident. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2019 Hibernated