Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Mon May 13 13:30:25 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of note: Trump's path to the White House was quirky. He won despite being unpopular & remains unpopular now, as evidenced by his approval ratings, the GOP's bad midterm results, his inability to rally popular support for his agenda, etc. That probably has to count for something. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind that in general, people's bias is to underestimate mean-reversion and also to underestimate the degree to which history can turn on relatively stochastic events. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also: Liberals spend a lot of time arguing that Trump is a uniquely grave threat to the Republic, etc. While that's not *exactly* the same as being an aberration in the sense Biden means it, it's close enough that you can understand how Biden's argument resonates with many Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

I tend to think "Trump is an aberration" is more wrong than right, but it's a complicated question, and one that pe… https://t.co/3yJSx3BtDh

Posted May 13, 2019 Hibernated