Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 4, 2020

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Mon May 13 13:30:25 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep in mind that in general, people's bias is to underestimate mean-reversion and also to underestimate the degree to which history can turn on relatively stochastic events. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I tend to think "Trump is an aberration" is more wrong than right, but it's a complicated question, and one that people are probably too self-confident about, given that it will be much easier to answer in ~10 years once we see how the GOP has responded to the aftermath of Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of note: Trump's path to the White House was quirky. He won despite being unpopular & remains unpopular now, as evidenced by his approval ratings, the GOP's bad midterm results, his inability to rally popular support for his agenda, etc. That probably has to count for something. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 13, 2019 Hibernated