Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 15, 2020

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Thu May 02 16:16:02 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanMcElwee @mattyglesias I'm saying that the heuristics were right in Trump's case. He underperformed a generic Republican and almost caused the GOP to blow it against a candidate with a 40% favorability rating, and in fact did lose the popular vote and probably would have lost EC too if not for Comey. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanMcElwee @mattyglesias Also, "other things equal, put a slight finger on the scale for a candidate from the Midwest" is probably not a terrible heuristic. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanMcElwee @mattyglesias Totally agree on women and POC. There's pretty good evidence from the scholarly literature (and from my own research) that candidates seen as "extreme" are punished by voters, however, so that seems like something important to consider. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 2, 2019 Hibernated