Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can say, "Bernie came close so polls were wrong!" But if you're forecasting just who wins the nomination, close *doesn't* count. If a candidate who polls at X wins Y% of the time, that doesn't mean she always wins in a cakewalk; Y% includes cases where she wins a squeaker. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@smotus @mattyglesias In Congressional elections, which have a much larger 'n' than presidentials, the evidence is reasonably clear IMO that more moderate candidates get elected more often, holding other factors constant. — PolitiTweet.org