Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 9, 2020

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Wed May 01 14:48:46 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Periodic reminder: the candidate who led the early polls won the Democratic nomination in 2016. And on the GOP side, while Trump didn't lead immediately after entering the race, he did within 5-6 weeks of his announcement, and held that lead and won his nomination too, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is well said. There's reasonably robust evidence that more moderate candidates are more "electable", other factors held equal (which they often aren't). There's not really much basis for the assumption that white men are more electable. — PolitiTweet.org

People fall back on heuristics — which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Some heuristics (experience, perceived moder… https://t.co/JJxkhx0KBa

Posted May 1, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can say, "Bernie came close so polls were wrong!" But if you're forecasting just who wins the nomination, close *doesn't* count. If a candidate who polls at X wins Y% of the time, that doesn't mean she always wins in a cakewalk; Y% includes cases where she wins a squeaker. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 1, 2019 Hibernated