Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 9, 2020

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Tue Apr 30 22:42:48 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. All the candidates who got big announcement bounces (Harris, Bernie, Beto) have seen their numbers fade back to where they were before. Biden probably will too. At the same time, when Bernie was peaking at ~25%, that was pretty ephemeral so ~15-18% might be his new normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Collectively, between the 5 post-Biden announcement polls, the sample size is reasonably large. And at least one of the polls (Morning Consult) has a very large sample. For candidates who are down in every poll, e.g. Bernie, sample size is not the reason why. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

pps ~25% vs. ~15-18% makes more difference than you'd think, in part because the former *maybe* allows you to coast your way to 1st place in IA/NH/SC and the latter probably does not. Bernie has something to work with, but might need to tweak his message to expand his coalition. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 30, 2019 Hibernated