Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 23, 2019

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Sat Apr 20 15:23:23 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here’s my very rough prior: 1/3 chance a candidate wins a proper, outright delegate majority 1/3 chance a candidate wins a clear enough *plurality* that there’s no doubt he or she will be nominated 1/3 chance of an actual contested convention — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Separately, what odds do you place on this being decided on the first ballot? Modern history of pres… https://t.co/U2AkhapT5M

Posted April 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not saying crowd wisdom is always right. But in this instance, the Russia investigation, public opinion has been way more sophisticated than elite commenters seem to assume in terms of weighing the evidence, and how it figures into overall assessments of the Trump presidency. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 20, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump has been screaming these talking points for a year and they haven't moved public opinion in his favor. He's convinced his base and no one else. Even the Barr letter, which the mainstream media treated as quite favorable for Trump, didn't really swing public opinion. — PolitiTweet.org

If Democrats do nothing and let the Mueller report sit, the party could end up fueling @realDonaldTrump's main talk… https://t.co/khNgaM36RK

Posted April 21, 2019 Hibernated