Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 12, 2019

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Wed Apr 10 16:15:37 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It sounds like you're narrowly right, but broadly wrong: It was quite electorally damaging to the figures involved, and therefore *not* a good example of a case where elite opinion was a better indicator of the political incentives for the relevant parties. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Not sure about that last one. I don't think AOC will lose a primary challenge in her district, but it probably nontrivially reduces the chance she'd win statewide office. And it would nontrivially hurt de Blaiso's re-election chances if he were eligible for a 3rd term IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Like, I don't think there's any way AOC would have handled Amazon as she did if she'd known how sharp the drop would be in her citywide and statewide approval ratings. Her district favorability rating (52%, per Siena) isn't so hot either for someone elected with 78% of the vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated