Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 12, 2019

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Wed Apr 10 16:10:58 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Not sure about that last one. I don't think AOC will lose a primary challenge in her district, but it probably nontrivially reduces the chance she'd win statewide office. And it would nontrivially hurt de Blaiso's re-election chances if he were eligible for a 3rd term IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bryanjoiner It doesn't seem like any of these are contradictory: 1 AOC thought it was the right thing 2 Lots of community activists/leaders did too 3 She mistook (2) for a broad-based consensus within her district 3b She could have spent more time persuading nonactivists on why she was right — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It sounds like you're narrowly right, but broadly wrong: It was quite electorally damaging to the figures involved, and therefore *not* a good example of a case where elite opinion was a better indicator of the political incentives for the relevant parties. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 10, 2019 Hibernated