Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 12, 2019

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Tue Apr 09 19:30:08 +0000 2019

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW here's my recollection about how good early exit polls were in recent US elections: 2018 midterms — mostly quite good 2016 general election — bad! 2016 primaries — mostly fairly good, caught a few surprises that polls missed 2014 midterms — quite good, caught GOP wave early — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know anything about exit polls in Israel. In the US, exit polls in the are a lot better than reputed, but unless you give caveats about them, reporters treat them as The God's Honest Truth—so maybe it's best if everyone thinks they're bad or else everyone goes overboard. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2019 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2012 general election — pretty good in states, but were off on national popular vote 2012 primaries — up-and-down; tended to overrate Romney's vote 2008 — my memory is fuzzy, I recall them having some problems in the Dem. primaries but mostly being good in the general — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 9, 2019 Hibernated