Matthew Yglesias

@mattyglesias ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 15, 2023

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Tue Nov 22 17:00:22 +0000 2022

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

You can also look it up for senate, for governor, and for the electoral college — across all four categories they are much better than guesswork but the governors races are less impressive than the other three. https://t.co/5lD7MewaE8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Well you check for calibration — if someone makes a lot of predictions, then about 4-out-10 of the times they say something has a 40% chance of happening, it should happen. Here’s a chart of the calibration of 538’s House forecasts. https://t.co/DO9hg57Icm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

So who cares? You’re free not to care! I don’t think predicting elections is the most important part of coverage politics. But in practice people ask me a lot what I think is going to happen in the future. 538 forecasts aren’t perfect but they are the best resource I know of. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022 Hibernated