Matthew Yglesias

@mattyglesias ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 15, 2023

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Tue Nov 22 16:58:02 +0000 2022

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Well you check for calibration — if someone makes a lot of predictions, then about 4-out-10 of the times they say something has a 40% chance of happening, it should happen. Here’s a chart of the calibration of 538’s House forecasts. https://t.co/DO9hg57Icm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Let’s talk about Five Thirty Eight and calibration! They said Republicans would probably win the senate but in fact Democrats gained a seat. So is @NateSilver538 full of shit? No, the forecast said this was close and either outcome was very possible. But is that useless? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022 Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

You can also look it up for senate, for governor, and for the electoral college — across all four categories they are much better than guesswork but the governors races are less impressive than the other three. https://t.co/5lD7MewaE8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022 Hibernated