Matthew Yglesias

@mattyglesias ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 28, 2022

Created

Sat Jan 01 23:10:53 +0000 2022

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202

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

Okay this is right it’s not a technical problem with the tests it’s a base rate issue. Apologies to Thomas Bayes and also to Mr Harless who taught me this in 12th grade. — PolitiTweet.org

For a disease w a 1-in-20,000 risk, a test w a false positive rate of 1% and a false negative rate of 0%—an insanel… https://t.co/fefpEcu1IJ

Posted Jan. 1, 2022 Deleted after a month Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@ModeledBehavior I have done this stockpiling not because I think this scenario is particularly likely but because it seemed worth it in the face of maybe a 2% chance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 1, 2022 Deleted after a month Hibernated

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Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias

@EmilyStewartM @ModeledBehavior I’m not an outdoorsy person, but I did get a perfect score on the Maine State Trip Leader written exam so I feel ready for a survival situation. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 1, 2022 Deleted after a month Hibernated