Tim Urban @waitbutwhy
If @FiveThirtyEight predicts 10 elections to be 60/40 and the favorite wins all 10 times, that’s not a perfect record. A perfect record is if the favorite wins 6 times and the underdog wins 4. But if that happened people would still call them out on “being wrong” those 4 times. — PolitiTweet.org
Matthew Yglesias @mattyglesias
Well you check for calibration — if someone makes a lot of predictions, then about 4-out-10 of the times they say s… https://t.co/0gfBbDXy10
