Tim Urban

@waitbutwhy ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 1, 2023

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Tue Nov 22 19:21:40 +0000 2022

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Tim Urban @waitbutwhy

@Jason Yeah the SBF content really dropped off — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022

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Tim Urban @waitbutwhy

FYI I was one of the first 700 people on Facebook. I think it actually said on the homepage “There are 6## people on Facebook.” — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022

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Tim Urban @waitbutwhy

If @FiveThirtyEight predicts 10 elections to be 60/40 and the favorite wins all 10 times, that’s not a perfect record. A perfect record is if the favorite wins 6 times and the underdog wins 4. But if that happened people would still call them out on “being wrong” those 4 times. — PolitiTweet.org

Well you check for calibration — if someone makes a lot of predictions, then about 4-out-10 of the times they say s… https://t.co/0gfBbDXy10

Posted Nov. 22, 2022