Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes The people working directly in AI aren't necessarily the biggest doomers (see below). But you also get… https://t.co/pt40NSZ0w0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart I mean I feel like commenters are a little more precise with their labels these days but also it seems… https://t.co/pJaPuatkL7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The one political/linguistic hill I'm somewhat willing to die on is that I don't think people (or I guess it's real… https://t.co/WLnNC6wsli — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's just sort of weird that the tech community thinks of AI alignment as a defining challenge of our time and yet… https://t.co/OQ7I27LZpF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like at least on Instagram people are (sometimes via filters etc.) hot or whatever, it's just fundamentally weird t… https://t.co/4P3Pb8UJc3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A very basic life rule is that you shouldn't cater to the most annoying people but that's sort of what you get stuc… https://t.co/qfpSWempXO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My best analogy is to a gambler who bets 100% of his bankroll on red while the roulette wheel is still spinning and then claims it was the result of his highly proprietary model when the ball takes a last-second bounce into red. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @jbarro @LizMair I need casino justice for the bad beat I took in poker the other night. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @EricStangel: Great Britain’s jerseys look like they were designed on Microsoft Word https://t.co/aen3qYHP7A — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WashburneAlex Yeah, I don't think people realize 1) how much pull partisanship can exert in the absence of other heuristics for evaluating evidence and 2) how this is more of a problem given increasing educational polarization. Many ostensibly nonpartisan fields now consist of 95%+ D voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang Yeah, maybe -150 was too much of a hot take. Just very few good comps for Zion in general. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang Zion -150 * 4 years younger * Seems to actually like basketball * Much better in peak form so even a diminished Zion would keep getting 2nd, 3rd, etc chances — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@baseballot Yeah and "move New England to the Atlantic Time Zone" is a surprisingly elegant solution that gets you most of the way there! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of the problem is that the Eastern Time Zone is just much too wide. Indianapolis and Bangor, Maine shouldn't be in the same time zone. So no DST proposal is going to make everyone happy. https://t.co/qHc1Ey3KZu https://t.co/xbAK1lgKDD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not the main point of this story, which is good and you should read, but interesting how "misspeak" in PR-speak has come to connote roughly the opposite of its literal meaning (Mishkin explained himself quite clearly, but his assumptions were very wrong!) https://t.co/OG0CRaz0m8 https://t.co/bHSqRsXhiS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Moral hazard is underrated in an economic system that is exceptionally efficient about responding to its incentives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Houston 25% Alabama 15% Texas 8% Purdue 5% Kansas 5% Gonzaga 4% Arizona 4% https://t.co/RQb3JntDP1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The White House is kind of in a no-win position on Silicon Valley Bank—a bailout would be unpopular, but a negative economic shock would also harm Biden's reelection—and it seems likely to further chill the relationship between the Democratic Party and the tech sector. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

DeSantis has way more buy-in from regular voters (polling in the 30s not the 10s) than Warren ever did. And also more from party elites. There were always concerns from D part elites about her "electability", whereas R party elites see that as a strength for DeSantis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis" is one of those claims that's inherently going to be too nuanced for public discussion on politically contentious issues. With that said, the lay translation of this finding is much closer to "we don't know" than "no evidence". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Noahpinion I feel like some conservatives I know make sort of the opposite mistake and conflate the Twitter/media left for normie liberals. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess there's not really a nice way to put this, but a lot of people aren't interested in accuracy and just want narratives and vibes. They're wrong about how the polls did in 2022, but then again they're wrong about most things. The polls did great & congrats to the pollsters! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Polls in the aggregate did NOT have a Republican bias in 2022. Technically they had a slight *Democratic* bias per our method, but it's close enough to zero that "polls were unbiased" is probably the right way to think about it. https://t.co/CMxHIfIcOr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our new POLLSTER RATINGS are out and two big headlines. 1) Polls had their most accurate cycle ever* in the years covered by our comprehensive long-term database. * Technically, tied with 2004 https://t.co/FnjO5oMZRg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan I actually think the worries about Delta reinfections were overblown, e.g. the P-town study caused more of a freakout than it should have. But that's part of a longer chain of problems where the communication was about "staying safe" and not turning COVID into a manageable risk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan On 2) the approach was heavy-handed and paternalistic, but the cities that were imposing vax requirements had previously been keeping businesses closed or imposing severe restrictions. So this was less heavy-handed by comparison, a bridge toward opening up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan On 1) there were *some* claims, including by high-ranking officials, that the vax completely blocked transmission. Those were bad. I wish the communication had been more about risk reduction, especially re: severe outcomes. But the vax did really < transmission in early/mid 2021. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan 1) Vaccines provided quite a lot of protection against transmission in early/mid 2021; most people's vax was relatively recent and Omicron hadn't come along. And they still provide some protection, FWIW. 2) Cities thought vaccine mandates would incentivize people to get vaxxed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan I think that's more forgivable than others. Initial studies suggested high effectiveness vs. even mild infection. Protection wasn't as durable as hoped, especially vs. variants, and some scientists had predicted as much, but this *was* a case where the evidence was evolving IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's been a big problem throughout COVID, starting with "noble lies" in March 2020 about not wearing masks. The media & public health officials oversimplify, spin, or try to affect a desired outcome rather than just giving people honest info. And it backfires, almost every time. — PolitiTweet.org