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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
h/t @DrCirillo Note: a simple equation >>>> zillion simulations. That's science. Thanks to Newton's formula we don't have to catalogue every single apple falling from every tree. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
ACADEMIC QUACKERY DU JOUR The @royalsociety just published a math-illiterate paper on P-Hacking that uses a lot of words and misses my own result from 2016-2018. https://t.co/4uANmlwnrN authors: Angelika Stefan @ephemeralidea & Felix Schönbrodt @nicebread303 @RetractionWatch https://t.co/RHvLPyliIZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@robnoftz1 Going fast brings enough pleasure to cause more compliance. How much you ride is a function of many things. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) There are many, many such tests with the same results. The Tour de France has been moving from ~22mm to 28mm. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mrgoodhome 38 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
BICYCLING PHYSICS DU JOUR It turns out that thinner tires are not faster than wider ones. They are just more uncomfortable, giving the illusion of speed. Testing has been contradicting ½ century of dogma. I am on 32mm (Domane). Shd I push to 38? https://t.co/O7payuzMoG — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mattmckellar @PaulSkallas Yes. And bikes are very hard to calibrate and hard to find. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Monsanto, Roundup, and Nabhan's book "TOXIC EXPOSURE" with Nassim Nicholas... https://t.co/Yrl9QViUYJ via @YouTube — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
One of the problems associated w/wealth is the expectation gap. At a maximally luxurious resort, a diluted espresso or delayed room service can make you frustrated. At a Hampton Inn, almost nothing irritates you. Generalize the differential between expectation & delivery. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@otrasenda_AC You can use "Principia", 2023, draft. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@intouchwit Thanks! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@doctorinigo (This friend of mine is going to France, Spain, and Italy). — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@doctorinigo Thanks Iñigo. Even in Spain? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@otrasenda_AC Working on it — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Friends, this friend of mine wants to fly with a road bicycle in a case. Airlines are no problem, but do these fit in a European (or US) Uber? [This is the Scicon Sports Aerocomfort 3.0 TSA] https://t.co/jSJGGZVsPb — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@JamesMarsh79 @karaipuku ES? Who? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) Falkenstein's disinformation was dangerous because when I met with the Obama finance commission, they had NOT read my writings on Value at Risk, BUT Falkenstein's strawman version. I confess some Schadenfreude at seeing someone that *vicious* working his way down in life. https://t.co/R9bkLirbkV — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Eric Falkenstein spent 26 years obsessively posting dinsinformation abt yours truly on web (est. 100K words). Some of the BS held. His method is to *insinuate* falsehood (e.g. IQ is 125), then progressively make it pass for truth. Watched him slowly & surely fail in life. https://t.co/UpK7w3TUUP — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
This does not mean money buys or doesn't buy happiness. It means idiosyncratic factors dominate and can't generalize. Your own experience matters. For some people money or security buys a lot of happiness... — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@TheMikeIsenberg No. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) Here are the representations of the relationship for correlations between .09 and .17 https://t.co/0pMx8q8y20 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
No, sorry, we can't tell whether money buys or doesn't buy happiness. When you see correlations around .09, all one can say is NO USEABLE INFORMATION. The effect is visible and valid ONLY for between 1 and 4 persons out of 100. https://t.co/5q8AHoBCad — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Foulke_David @GidMK I was blocked by the other guy, that's why. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @RogueRad: What can radiology learn from @nntaleb's Antifragile? A lot - Lindy effect, Via Negativa, dangers of faux uniformity and peri… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Foulke_David @GidMK Sorry... Thanks! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Foulke_David @GidMK What the fuck do you mean? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) The Cochrane report ignored the below. They also included in the "meta-analysis" the shoddy Danish mask study that ignored that masks confer bidirectional protection, plus other similar flaws. So far we have no RCT that parachutes help. Would you fly without one? https://t.co/bZ5V1uaEFe — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
The pbm w/the #Cochrane report is not w/masks. It is w/Randomized Controlled Experiment. They did not grasp that if you can't squeeze some measures into the Procrustean bed of RCT, you CHANGE the method. They can't get absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. #idiots 1/n https://t.co/yHnpdygLGV — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Darius1296 @jaffer_ali1 And the good life. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@lukeburgis Popper had the last word. His critics left no mark. — PolitiTweet.org
