Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bigfatsurprise @DrDamluji @cochranecollab @nationallipid "or even heart disease"? The drop is several STDs. Are you serious about your statement? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bigfatsurprise @DrDamluji @cochranecollab @nationallipid You are making public claims that can be harmful to society, so you must stick to it. You are saying that seat belts reduce the number of people who are hospitalized for car accidents, but since we are not sure about mortality, let's ignore. Correct? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bigfatsurprise @DrDamluji @cochranecollab @nationallipid The skinny here is that, statistically speaking, YOU are not allowed to make an absence of mortality claim. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@wolfejosh @DavidDeutschOxf Wow... actually Popper would have agreed on falsification = never rule out tail events and hedge for them, the foundation of POpperian asymmetry. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@choochee55 I don't need further evidence than your statement to recommend that you take a break from commenting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

The Sam Bankman-Fried Affair in one Tweet. He (illegally) gambled with his customers' funds, but (by his own admission) never thought the market would experience a tail event, so he believed the strategy was safe & customers would be OK, nobody wd know. He needs to be behind bars — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

The Sam Bankman-Fried Affair in one Tweet. He (illegally) gambled with his customers' funds, but (by his own admission) never thought the market would experience a tail event, so he believed the strategy was safe and customers would be OK. He needs to be behind bar. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bigfatsurprise @mchenard129 @DrDamluji @cochranecollab @nationallipid Of course there are confounders in clinical trials. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bigfatsurprise @DrDamluji @cochranecollab @nationallipid Nyet. Their data shows reduction in mortality, but the variance [of mortality] is too high to make a claim. It does not mean NO reduction in mortality, it means simply "definite reduction in mortality CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED from the data". You just need more data: death stochastic — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DrDamluji @bigfatsurprise @cochranecollab @nationallipid Assuming it is the representative part of the cohort, just to get the order of magnitude of the unconditional. [From UptoDate] https://t.co/fNsyNedd7F — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2) Bernie Madoff didn't spin. He stood up and said "there is no innocent explanation". He was also well-dressed, a sign of self-respect. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @artofinvestmnt: 25 Insights from Nassim Taleb: https://t.co/m96oZQ3UY2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @nntaleb: @SaadMaan15 @mailtuitero People don't get that the Maghreb, particularly Tunisia, spoke Latin way before France, particularly… — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@ErnestBoehm Antoine Le Gros. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DrDamluji @bigfatsurprise @cochranecollab @nationallipid NNT of 1 in 56 reduction is big when the CVD risk is in the same order of magnitude. The very paper she referenced negates her claim. On that, later. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DrDamluji @bigfatsurprise @cochranecollab @nationallipid Thanks Abdulla. 1 in 56 is yuuuge. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

You must be extremely new to finance to refuse to accept that Sam Bankman-Fried is as criminal as Bernie Madoff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@SaadMaan15 @mailtuitero People don't get that the Maghreb, particularly Tunisia, spoke Latin way before France, particularly Northern France. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@EdmondShami @SaadMaan15 Almazigh were most likely called Berbers by themselves, the urbanized latin-speaking ones. The entire coast was latinized, mountains spoke Almazigh. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@EdmondShami @SaadMaan15 Barbar == Barbarian "Berber" == Almazigh — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@CagriAvio @Porkchop_EXP Beru. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2/ Even when using proportion of body weight, it must not grow linearly, rather logarithmically. At 300 lbs you don't lift 2x what a 150lb does, but ~1.7. https://t.co/44AugPGF2O — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

The second best best argument against losing weight (tripes, kebbe w/citrus-tahini sauce, & squid ink being the first). Note: in a bar fight, nobody fights you "as a percentage of weight". — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@EdmondShami @SaadMaan15 Beyd bi awarma — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Thanks for coming and please STOP callling me maestro. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@SaadMaan15 @NachoOliveras In Lebanon we use to call it "service" and the entire taxi: "scarsa". — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Mehdi_IR_DC Yes, rigorous means rigorous. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@EdmondShami We the Rum never use samen with eggs. That's your compatriots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bigfatsurprise Thanks, sorry I initially mistook the reply for an antivaxx post. I will revert at some point and discuss all evidence pro-con on my probability blog (with a focus on medical statistics) https://t.co/QdbnqBWZHx — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Satyaki_R @mikenearlincoln Block idiots... Too many have a political tendency in mind, use a book for justification. — PolitiTweet.org