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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mimassi @ByzLevant @shaqattack_gr From self identification Rhomaics — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Beirutspring Many of these were drawn by pple in London who never set foot in the Levant. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MauriceMassaad @HsenAndil Actually, true. In natural systems, forest fires are there for a reason. I was told that Amioun's problem is the aging of olive trees; they need replacement. Sorry for the tragic loss but consider future olive oil! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@paulmromer @econstatsnerd @CT_Bergstrom @HarryDCrane Romer, think before blabbering about probability. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@econstatsnerd @paulmromer @CT_Bergstrom @HarryDCrane He committed the base rate fallacy WHILE using Bayes' rule. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@paulmromer @CT_Bergstrom @HarryDCrane Yes I read it BEFORE Harry's tweet & saw the same flaw as Harry. Problemo? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@CT_Bergstrom As @HarryDCrane showed, you don't understand posterior probability. Sorry. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2/ In other words, @CT_Bergstrom's arrogant mistake is not realizing that background information = ALL available information. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@LauraSerrano10 New name? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Harry knows probability & is the honorary 2020-2021 chairperson of our BS Busting Probability Brigade. @HarryDCrane could see in his sleep that @CT_Bergstrom is focusing on a weak differential statistical signal while ignoring a yuuuge statistical signal (- test). #BSBuster — PolitiTweet.org
Harry Crane @HarryDCrane
🤯🤯🤯 Bayes Rule + "Fermi estimation" = Pence has Covid Conditions on pink-eye but not Pence's negative test. This… https://t.co/sTI1v3VXWC
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Picking a cover for the paperback 5 volume INCERTO https://t.co/9CCRBGouIg — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Elementary logical problems [absence of evidence...] — PolitiTweet.org
Dogma_Is_Dead @IsDogma
@VPrasadMDMPH @NEJM NEJM in April: Masks don't work. NEJM in Oct.: Stupid Americans in flyover country refuse to we… https://t.co/uJejl3YYSj
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@CathrynPapa @mrassi @marwanchatila @mazen_barbir @Decafquest THe place is worth so much without them we can raise the funds! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@acorralcrm @Heinonmatti @ajmoralesguzman @DrCirillo Matti, he doesn't get that what matters is the fit OUTSIDE. This is so ignorant we chose to NOT respond to his paper. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@CathrynPapa @mrassi @marwanchatila @mazen_barbir @Decafquest Cheaper to pay bad locals to leave. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Heinonmatti @acorralcrm @ajmoralesguzman @DrCirillo Matti, ignore him. If he can't get it, he will never get it. Meanwhile the discussion of HIERARCHY is in CHapter 3 on the book: if 2 distributions fit the points, the fat-tailed one prevails. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@octonion This is exactly K-L (diff entropy); not symmetric! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
A Fat Tony comment: "Someone as rich as you shouldn't be that vigilant with money". Fat Tony: "If I weren't so vigilant I wouldn't have been, and stayed, rich." #Ergodicity #PrecautionaryPrinciple — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @Return2Med: https://t.co/mP1TiK9d2T — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Janan Ganesh has a clear mind & can see through the verbalism. Refreshing for a journalist these days. https://t.co/4iQJEXh9MT via @financialtimes — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@razibkhan Watch out... Doesn't smell right, methodologically. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @Return2Med: Sea caves of Cyprus. https://t.co/JJla7HMARn — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@TaviCosta Fucking idiot, a return is not based on zero & is here the natural unit given the right base. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Indeed I made a mistake differencing between MDs and DO, and I apologize. Anyway, the point is that no matter how unrigorous these can be, the BS by these psychologists is vaaaaaaaaaastly worse. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
I agree 100% that osteopathy does not belong to rigorous science & an osteopath does not substitute for an MD. But psychological BS a la @sapinker or @PTetlock are even more unrigorous! https://t.co/RGAoNhZR9i — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
BEWARE % changes; they are uninformative. Something that goes from 0 to \epsilon has an infinite growth. In MEDICINE, people shd NOT look at relative increase in mortality (3x) when hazard is v. low (say "doubling" from 1 in 500K to 2 in 500K), rather absolute changes (1/500K). — PolitiTweet.org
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
Meanwhile in Canada..... Â The BoC is taking monetary stimulus to a whole new level recently. https://t.co/YTV5wPTBBM
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@FrankusBad @Sobalaan Since they all have Taqiyya, they may have started as external expressions of the same religion. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Extrachelle @Marcellenassif @jack @HsenAndil @Decafquest @oldlevantine Any news today? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Solution. Also see results by @johndawkins and @ggalexsava https://t.co/1Z6zkMkf4q — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@byzantinepower Not even dialects of Arabic but neighboring Semitic languages — PolitiTweet.org
