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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Good attitude. Application of the Popper-Gödel: blackball only the blackballers. — PolitiTweet.org
Jake Tapper @jaketapper
An organized attempt by former Dem officials to blackball from employment anyone who worked for the US government d… https://t.co/fZXChXujoq
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@ndehouche No, because the geometric doesn't. Depends what parameter you compound to & the variance. https://t.co/yxlMsMC1tp — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mpolhill @trhediger The article is shit. No need to "refute" it. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
A friend just DMd: "if data is lognormal then it MUST conform to Benford's law". Anwer: No, Niet, Οχι, Lo, La2, Inmo, Nao, Olmaz! https://t.co/Kmtk33jsNb — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@DrePodcast Indeed. Plus some distributional attributes. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mpolhill Yes, depends on how may votes Biden got, which is much more than the others. Benford is hard. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@dan_azzi I have both. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@jengolbeck @Warlock_532 hahaha! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Mehdi_IR_DC Depends also on the variance. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MarcosCarreira This is not a normal, but a folded Normal, as you can see I removed the sign. Still the point illustrates well. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@StefannieJack You seem ignorant of statistics, Mr HydroQ and FireFauci. Higher digits have bigger sample error/noise. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@trhediger Of course. Thanks! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Sorry, typo in previous (changed the variance not the mean but STILL illustrative). This should be more convincing. https://t.co/sqdnYqBwnu — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@CGDMedici Not the winner. You need a pivot for each. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@spyrosmakrid I added an example. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
BENFORD-NEWCOMB'S LAW. Be careful. Probability is not a fortune cookie enterprise! https://t.co/YYjFbQO3A4 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@GuruAnaerobic No, depends on mean. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
BENFORD'S LAW Bendford's law requires unconditionality. Conditional on an outcome (win), the first digit must be less frequent than otherwise. Conditional on the average human being ~ 5+ f, the first digit (1 ft) needs to be less frequent than 5f. Be careful. be very careful. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MasaSkiba Not in Procrustes? If so I need to add. Thanks. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
"Markets are volatile" = they are going down. Nobody says "volatile" for bull markets. — PolitiTweet.org
Harry Crane @HarryDCrane
@normonics If something happens that I did predict => because I'm brilliant If something happens that I didn't predict => uncertainty
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MasaSkiba Source? Thanks my friend. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @MasaSkiba: "In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@nella_fortezza https://t.co/nkbvFb6OMF — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@nella_fortezza Use the limit x+1/n, n \to \infty — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@cashew_toast @Extrachelle You seem to be an idiot. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Extrachelle Mostly because it prints what some people already know. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@datenverstehen Hayek: central state is needed for pandemics, etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Firsou @hugowiz @Spfannenschmidt @IAmMicMars @GrantSSC @Extrachelle @LouisPaulThe2nd @golchhaJ @gaffneycathal @otrasenda_AC @exergiovanni @jbarrpartarr @lucklepper @aleksastunikas @trishankkarthik @samuelxgarcia not yet. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Extrachelle We think alike. https://t.co/tDPwcGvhjf — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@nella_fortezza The summation then gives ½ — PolitiTweet.org
