Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

My derivations thread https://t.co/mk3tjyzL6C — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

DANISH STUDY, 2. Some math tinkering this morning Correcting the study results as it itself claims. Not counting the true odds ratio off outside infections as comparative numbers. https://t.co/SKAj0upiks — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Preliminary comments on the DANISH STUDY. Tells you nothing about masks. Tells you something about methodology using fortune cookie randomized control studies methodology. https://t.co/MGFLxf4eWi — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

In other words, how can the infection rate be 2% when the sensitivity is 82 ½ %. Can someone interpret this? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Friends, I am preparing a report on the Danish Study. But just saw this: it is me or there is something wrong about a study where base rate of infection is 2% AND the sensitivity of the test at 85%, meaning ~7 times more pple were infected in each cohort than shown in the paper? https://t.co/yf6PKjiHFo — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bealelab I will manage to convince you that without statistical rigor a study is junk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

The article in the @spectator by @carlheneghan grossly misrepresents the scientific paper on masks, which itself contains severe statistical flaws It was flagged (not banned) on FB w/a factchecking warning A No flagging at all by FB/TWITTER B Only to those who subscribe to flag — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

The only thing I would warn against is the false positive paradox, when the prevalence of the disease is lower than than the false positive rate. One of those nice Bayesian counterintuitive thingys. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

He is also the nephew of the French translator of Dino Buzzati's Deserto. So I may be biased. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

He was my student at Courant (Math Finance). And he is a math virtuoso. https://t.co/2UG8zGUpho — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@ArthurB @KarstenJuhl I am working now on the false negatives to get the net distribution under the null... Shd be elementary but I need to redo. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@KarstenJuhl @ArthurB Fuck, no. We are saying the study does not inform you about the effectiveness of masks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bealelab Rupert, mon ami, please explain why THIS is not junk science. https://t.co/HRbM3bxsPh — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

I agree the authors (unlike the propagandists) hedged their claims. So, aside from the fact that infections tend to happen at home, here is my junk science accusation: Can an infection rate of ~2% be compatible w/properties below? WHO IS THE STATISTICAN WHO APPROVED THIS CRAP? https://t.co/Qr6vUMANZs — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@ArthurB Actually the bigger flaw is in not clearing the false positive rate, here in excess of the result. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@LarpSerppon @ArthurB Actually, this is the biggest flaw. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@LearYorick C'est bien cela. Livres, puis chapitres. INCERTO > Essais (5)> Livres [sous] > Chapitres > Sections > Paragraphes — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@LarpSerppon @ArthurB Bingo! This is the problem of small probability under error. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@LearYorick Merci bien. Je vais aller regarder et en faire part à l'éditeur. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@LearYorick Merci bien, je vais voir. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@robkhenderson Where is this from? Thanks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @stevenstrogatz: Wonderful tribute to “Maestro Bogomolny”, who taught us all so much here with his tweets and riddles at ⁦@CutTheKnotMat… — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Extrachelle @byzantinepower 3a 2bel l alf! — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@ArthurB Arthur, most infections take place at home. This is the biggest flaw. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

See for yourself: @carlHeneghan, "evidence based prof", is SHAMELESSLY misrepresenting the paper, which explicitly claims it has no result. (Aside from severe flaws in the paper itself). https://t.co/23KQTdAsHt — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Actually Heneghan DID post false information: the study DO NOT make that claim. I am very surprised that someone can be a professor of "evidence b" & be ignorant basic statistical methodolody plus have a reading comprehension problem. #FooledbyRandomness https://t.co/EBhSnnRmy5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

This is total BS. The study DOES NOT show masks have no significant effect. It tells you: "wearing a mask in your garden (but not a home) will not prevent you from catching COVID at home." Statistically, the study is junk science. It wasn't easy to publish because of the flaw. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

This is total BS. The study DOES NOT show masks have no significant effect. It tells you: "wearing a mask in your garden will not prevent you from catching COVID at home." Statistically, the study is junk science. It wasn't easy to publish because of its methodological flaw. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@EmanuelDerman @goldstein_aa @quantian1 @SandrewFinance Assume a strike of 0. Then 0 +\epsilon, then +2 \eps... — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@EmanuelDerman @goldstein_aa @SandrewFinance @quantian1 Emanuel and I used a static argument. Actually, dynamic hedging works using the LLN temporally (across time). I showed the use statically (across strikes). — PolitiTweet.org