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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) To predict, you need to work with the JOINT distribution of individual AND environment. Now consider someone trying to predict today's environment in 2019. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
No. You can predict what she or he will purchase next quarter, maybe. — PolitiTweet.org
Balaji Srinivasan @balajis
Astrology doesn’t work, but machine learning might. Suppose you are Facebook or LinkedIn. You have a massive datab… https://t.co/xXKucFttpv
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
No. — PolitiTweet.org
Balaji Srinivasan @balajis
Astrology doesn’t work, but machine learning might. Suppose you are Facebook or LinkedIn. You have a massive datab… https://t.co/xXKucFttpv
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Conjecture Du Jour [Notations might be messed up] https://t.co/HbelA9Z08r — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman @trishankkarthik @NachoOliveras You ignore the morbidity/delayed risk from Covid. There is ALSO uncertainty with Covid for survivors. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@tjoeln39 @maircomm You're an idiot. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@IbeSaid @Spfannenschmidt @DrDamluji Let me look at the data. Other studies documenting regression via interventions show results for noncalcified plaque. Would be nice to see the combined effect of 1) exercise +2) dietary +3) Optimal Medical Therapy interventions, to check on horizontal & vertical nonlinearity! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman I looked in details about the side effects. More TK. Now let's not conflate antivaxx and antivaxx as a long term solution. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Shteyngart Just ordered! Didn't know there was a new novel! — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman The point is we operate with a 4-6 m window; the idea is to CONTROL for now and STEM the explosion. Mrna Vax is a temporary patch; we may get other ones; there are many antiviral drugs in the pipeline & displacing mutations of the virus might happen. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@IbeSaid @Spfannenschmidt @DrDamluji Not likely to be measurement error. This seems to map to other similar pictures of nonlinearity with aortic stiffening and ventricular reverse remodeling. https://t.co/pxAt0m19tc — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@altini_marco @hjluks @AliciaFilley @LaRepublica2020 Grazie — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
4) Compare the UK [1 in thread] to Russia [less vaccinated]. Pace some adhocnitpicker that one needs to control for Vodka & readership of Dostoevski. https://t.co/fMQYwlt88c — PolitiTweet.org
Adel @meoyawn
@nntaleb not very vaccinated Russia: new cases vs deaths https://t.co/q7DaqGWnlj
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
3) This is a (nearly) contemporaneous U.S. data [mostly Delta variant]. Unless there is a mysterious Specter-like group [007] manipulating the data or some vast conspiracy, vaccines substantially reduce the rate of infection. There are >> infections, consider the counterfactual. https://t.co/Upbt49UxrR — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@altini_marco @hjluks @AliciaFilley @LaRepublica2020 Hi, Is there a sort of abstract I can find? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joonya__ Triggered? Fuck them — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Fine print: (Clearly there is a possibility that the virus became suddenly 10x less deadly or that the old miraculously ceased to be infected in favor of the young or that the agencies are paid by Pharma to lie and other ad hoc arguments) — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Fine print: (Clearly there is a possibility that the virus became suddenly 10x less deadly or that the old miraculously ceased to be infected in favor of the young or that the agencies are paid by Pharma to lie and other ad hoc arguments) — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@testingacct18 @maircomm Yeah yeah yeah — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) This does not count the infections that were *avoided* by vaccines (conservatively estimated > 50%). PS- I blocked Peterson 2 y ago when he invited me to do a podcast & didn't know much abt him. Went to his feed, listened to a podcast, was horrified, and blocked. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@hjluks If my Min is 45 and max 170, shd my Zone 2 start 10 points lower ? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@hjluks What is Zone 2 for you ? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
A single graph explains the effect of vaccines on mortality. The rest is statistical trickery. [Unless past infected off by >1 order of magnitude.] "Dan from Prague" @maircomm arguing w/Jordan Peterson who has the scientific rigor of a drunk astrologist. — PolitiTweet.org
Dan Mair @maircomm
@bucly1 @jordanbpeterson Data & evidence like this, you mean? UK: new cases vs deaths. I'm eagerly awaiting my boos… https://t.co/1OvGe…
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@ektrit @razibkhan Kris is correct. We now find stuff going backwards but it was NOT part of cultural life & vanished later >12C. For instance the Bibliotheca by Photius (who was a Patriarch) is something inconceivable in 1500. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2a) https://t.co/LIVqQXgzaX — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) Religion is an ethnic marker not a theological vehicle. @razibkhan recently promoted Hoyland's theory that Islam was an ethnic vehicle. https://t.co/csFWhFKNjy — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Nice to see someone else write our claim of April 2020. — PolitiTweet.org
Yaneer Bar-Yam @yaneerbaryam
Original article: https://t.co/2zXxbwrQCq
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @yaneerbaryam: Original article: https://t.co/2zXxbwrQCq — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Greek Hellenism became subsumed into the Greek Orthodox Church, which explains why until very recently Levantines Rums never mixed or supported the other "Orthodox" s.a. the Copts and Syriacs/Nestorians who sided with the Persians ag. Herakles. Calcedonian is a Greek marker. — PolitiTweet.org
Kris 📿🇨🇦 🇦🇱 @ektrit
Steady reminder that Hellenism was kept alive in the middle ages by what is now called the Catholic Church, while i… https://t.co/vD5JYeubnu
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@ektrit If 100% of the population is vaccinated, 100% of infections will come from the vaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org
