Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager Or maybe 6 packs helps? h/t @JamesMarsh79 for the idea. https://t.co/jdmXRnzdgB — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@JamesMarsh79 @GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager Sorry forgot the h/t @JamesMarsh79 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager Yes the fellow below was overweight, old, and had no muscle mass, no? https://t.co/CkPBmtNL8A — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @yaneerbaryam: Framework for estimating long term harm due to vaccination based upon universal shape of the near tail of an event (arriv… — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

7) Finally the real reason it turns out to be a really good day: BOTH single exposures and repeated exposures follow a Gamma Dist since: a sum of gamma distributed variables is ... gamma distributed! — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

6) (Vaccine Risk) Today was a good day. @dzviovich found a proof of what I was doing casually & intuitively. Carcinogenesis obeys a gamma-type distribution. https://t.co/bGrbnLVxzZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@MDiPaolaMD @GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager Here. Shockingly universal data https://t.co/l6UU6ncygR — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@mikeharrisNY Exactly what we are looking for. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @KhalilAndani: Warning to Academics: Paul Williams .@freemonotheist invited me to Blogging Theology to present an academic Quranic studi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@bogsnorkeler Clotting is a known vaccine risk. Anything that happens early is known. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@mikeharrisNY In large sample must show early for a few people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@pauld198 @NachoOliveras Leave him out of this. I kept his name out because he did nothing wrong & helped illustrate my point. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

5) ILLUSTRATION Someone showed argued and showed paper saying Kuru had incubation of 10 years. Well, that is an average not a deterministic point. From estimation in PAPER, I inferred the distribution of people in first 2 years. Would show in large samples. https://t.co/jXRiI9h5A6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager It has nothing to do with Covid. It kills in proportion to mortality. You want to lower mortality, it's another discussion. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@evankozliner @shaarsh2 @omarg333 @OtisManousakos @DrPaulOffit It can show up early in 1 in 100 million of cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@NachoOliveras @shaarsh2 @omarg333 @OtisManousakos @DrPaulOffit @dzviovich Yes your example contradicts the point you were trying to make with it. Kuru follows a distribution like mine above, with 4 billion you'd see right away! — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@shaarsh2 @NachoOliveras @omarg333 @OtisManousakos @DrPaulOffit He is talking about "average incubation". Must be a distribution. cc @dzviovich — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@EndTorpor Which part of "single exposure" are you having trouble with? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@drjohnm @VickersBiostats John, I will build a thread from that page with the wrong number. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

4) This guy is very smart. The distribution of harm *from one exposure* has few degrees of freedom. https://t.co/FbcPrBYToh — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@geoffreydgraham @CavigliaVince @GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager Correct. Then risk sharing should be at the level of the mandating body, not the manufacturer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@joe_shipman @dylanarmbruste3 @HostilGanso @GrantSSC @elektronenjager Why are you engaging imbeciles, Joe? If you do so, please don't keep me on thread. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@CavigliaVince @GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager I am fucking tired of people using a cartoon representation of my work to lecture me on Hammurabi or Antifragile. A vaccine that saves lives would NOT work under gross liability as you save 100K lives and go bust for killing 1. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager Used complications because diabetes does not kill directly as much as via other crap. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @nntaleb: @GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager This is a myth I am trying to bust. "Being healthy (heart + muscular strength + not ov… — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager This is a myth I am trying to bust. "Being healthy (heart + muscular strength + not overweight) " reduces probability of death from complications of diabetes to ~0. But it does NOT reduce probability of death from Covid as it stays proportional to death from ALL other causes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager Not sufficient for Covid. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@joe_shipman @elektronenjager Bingo! Which is why boosters are just a patch while buying time, waiting for better solutions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@elektronenjager But correct: cancer is a series of mutations with memoryless error hence gamma distributed post exposure. Can be 1 week if n large enough! — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@hugowiz @maircomm Consider that the peak would be much much higher without measures... What is the correct counterfactual? — PolitiTweet.org