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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
RT @10kdiver: Which of these is MORE likely: A “once in a 100 year” event happening at least once in the next 100 years, [OR] A “once in… — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@hjluks @golchha_J @altini_marco @digvijoy_c @AliciaFilley @LaRepublica2020 @PolarGlobal What is ACM? + Acute Cerebrospinal Meningitis ? + Arnold Chiari Malformation ? + Alveolar Capillary Membrane ? + Anatomically corrected malposition ? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
The #FooledbyRandomness effect: if 100% of old people are vaxxed, 100% of old people with stroke will be vaxxed. The anti-vaxx crowd is (mostly) composed of lunatics, psychopaths, fools of randomness, misfits, & impressionable kids vulnerable to propaganda. — PolitiTweet.org
Arb :: The Bard @PropertyThePpl
@nntaleb @joe_shipman Another of my wife's vaxxed clients just came in this afternoon after what was likely a strok… https://t.co/BAG7vZ3Zky
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mikeharrisNY @golchha_J @joe_shipman I like to rederive EVERYTHING myself. Here sum of 2. https://t.co/Ob2qVHsme1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman Correction: let us say so far <200 per million for THAT age group (<22). — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman Sorry read Chinese as they were describing HK patients as Chinese Anyway we need to get all studies and they are all within that ballpark under 200 per million. Look for severe cases vs severe Covid. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mikeharrisNY @golchha_J @joe_shipman Isentical is not necessary (correction) only if second parameter same. But for left tail the one with highest variance dominates. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mikeharrisNY @golchha_J @joe_shipman They must have the same scale but different means OK. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mikeharrisNY @golchha_J @joe_shipman Will try a derivation. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman Joe without noticing, you are selecting ONE study in China (not HK) and not picking the much larger one in the US. I am certain you do not mean to hide anything but just be aware of it. https://t.co/wx9KG8u8Jg — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mikeharrisNY @golchha_J @joe_shipman Of course it stays gamma. IId is not required. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MJ83417592 @trishankkarthik @joe_shipman Ad personam with an anonymous account ? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Spfannenschmidt I don't trust the Apple Watch. Best test is trying 4 flights of stairs at max speed as proxy for stress test. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Nudgestocker @sebs_tweets @FatTonysHQ What's wrong with following you? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Spfannenschmidt How do you mesure your VO2 max? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@PottersLesley @joe_shipman It does. The mean is ~1-4 weeks — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman This is still chicken sh*t: 15 per million reactions for the vaccine vs 2 orders of magnitude higher morbidity (including death) from the virus for that same age group. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@digvijoy_c @F_MagUidhir @TMessi_1 Was on machine, bounced back to 91. Drops while going to the bathroom. Stop loss was with concentrator. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@daniel_corcos From what is seems, each exposure can be taken additively, see below the gamma distribution additivity. So it does not matter for the shape of the distribution, just the parametrization. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@NahanniFinanci1 @Sharpe_Actuary Yes, and it depends how you define x (since no matter how you define it, it will be gamma but with a different parametrization). — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@daniel_corcos @yaneerbaryam Of course there is. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@TMessi_1 81-82 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@TMessi_1 Covid/ it is a rare condition giving people hypoxia without dyspnea. Hence destruction without pain to trigger overcompensation. How low dis@oxygen go? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@imcomingundone9 @GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager @JamesMarsh79 Triple Imbecile, #1 predictor does not mean deterministic. 29% of patients were not obsese. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@tswirly Bad analogy. Here we are saying there are 4 billion elevators with various speeds. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@trishankkarthik @joe_shipman @tswirly Trishank, Joe S. is a pain in the neck but you must rely on him as he will force you to be rigorous. Sometimes you don't need quantification (as perhaps here) but at least you can work with him. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@DrCirillo Tutte le strade portano a Gini. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@trade_alchemist It would be "vaxxed differently". — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MDiPaolaMD @GrantSSC @joe_shipman @elektronenjager CDC https://t.co/5UVkybVqds — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@joe_shipman @tswirly Reducing the rate of transmission has a yuuuge nonlinear effect. Macro numbers show new peaks that would have been bigger w/o vaccines. — PolitiTweet.org
