Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@orbitroute @johndurant Yes the theory of Mutual Assured Destruction held. But here, to answer John, I guarantee that whatever we do in Ukraine will have the same result as far as his *threats* so long as his military plans are frustrated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@AliTirmizey @pnp8 Not quite. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

For those fooled by that idiot @ggreenwald: This is not 2002, when the West was not threatened by nuclear weapons & Saddam's WMD were mere speculation. People are easily fooled by shallow similarities when in fact here it is > like the opposite. Putin is playing GW Bush. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@ggreenwald This reminds me of an old professor who said: "If you ever find yoursef in a situation where you must explain Bayesian updating, walk away". — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@johndurant Basic risk management is about the downside, not the likely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@ggreenwald Imbecile Greenwald, unlike you I am a scientist. I update my opinion with facts and evidence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

The problem with @ggreenwald isn't that he is a shill. The problem is his low intellect, as expressed by first order reasoning and elementary fallacies, coupled with the ability to reach masses with salient imagery. Low and hollow intellect. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@Jed_Trott @MemeticKnight @markojustmarko He has a point? What point? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2) Putin effectively used *sanctions* as part of the cause of his nuclear threat! If mere sanctions can be the trigger, then military action against him is imperative given that it does not change the downside. He must be removed. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

This idiot doesn't realize Covid killed ~ 1 million people (in spite of aggressive measures) & that early reaction would have reduced that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DrGeneCallahan Ukraine is not placing missiles. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@AlfareroLesley Morning RHR came down 2 weeks after Covid, but took a while (1-2m) to eliminate occasional evening tachycardia (lasting 1-2h). — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DrGeneCallahan Your point is mute: as events have proven, today no *democratic* unit would *voluntarily* become part of the Russian sphere. It's like nobody balanced migrates to Russian if they can come to the US. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@DrGeneCallahan You already have Cuba, no? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

2- Observation: So far, reached 90 min/day average w/no adverse effect on resting heart rate, no sign of overtraining. Distribution is not pyramidal, but curved: 15% Z1, 55% Z2, 22% Z3... over the months, but only 25% of days Z>=3. https://t.co/tMdxz1YQVM — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@MemeticKnight @Jed_Trott Keep going, please. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

It is the same in medicine (only look at, and treat, large deviations), in markets (only look at price deviations in excess of a threshold), in military intervention (severe humanitarian problems, not "improvement" by interventionistas), etc. https://t.co/2onYD7uXCL — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

https://t.co/9t57f8V6X6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@MemeticKnight @Jed_Trott This is another fallacy, called cherry picking. But that one is usually dealt with & I am not mentioning it in debunking disinformation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@MemeticKnight @Jed_Trott Your feed, Pietro, is great for someone to study disinformation. The fallacy you just committed is that of ahistoricity. Why consider what took place 60 y ago, not 120, 240, 480 years ago as well ? — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Most days, 99.9% of the news is noise. The last few days, it's all signal. #FooledbyRandomness — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

I hear the statement "Putin is crazy, if he is provoked by a NATO intervention he will use nuclear weapons." Well, if Putin is crazy (he is), he will use nuclear weapons anyway. It is not NATO that would tip him, but frustration (and humiliation). — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@dgafbtc Sorry I block idiots. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@vtchakarova 5 now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@dgafbtc It is what you do with it that will be confiscated. A car, a house, etc. can be immediately seized. And if someone lauders your bitcoins, they will also be caught. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@BrankoMilan A friend explained to me: like drinking they may not know when to stop. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Δολοφόνοι! — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

Yesterday gave a lecture at Columbia presenting my #BTC "black paper". Topic: Bitcoin cannot be possibly a way to evade the system, you can immediately triangularize once you connect ANY transaction to a wallet. Plus probabilistic sleuthing. Now this! https://t.co/Hgn0mqIAJh — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

@joe_shipman @gpanterov You're so fucking clueless it's not funny. — PolitiTweet.org

Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb

RT @EmmanuelMacron: Δεν είναι μόνο ο λαός της Ουκρανίας που πενθεί σήμερα εξαιτίας του πολέμου που προκάλεσε η Ρωσία, αλλά όλοι οι λαοί της… — PolitiTweet.org