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Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Safar_Luis Yes. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) There are EU benefits countries can get without joining. In Schengen not in EU: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, etc. Same for residence. It is a matter of ad hoc agreements. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
The difference between joining the EU and joining NATO is that NATO is supposed to be there only when you need it. With the EU you get bureaucrats meddling with your affairs (vacuum cleaners, toaster ovens). With NATO, you get protection. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MichaelB_12z Yes of course... — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@LUmutoniwase Virtual — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
Friends, #RWRI 17 is open for applications, July 11-22. We are accepting scholarships. https://t.co/MOQV9ANkLy — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@TheIllegit The Greeks may have had a word for blue. But other communities, no. So my general point stood. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@TheIllegit No. Antifragile was never "corrected" and did not say that. The point was that there were things we "knew" but did not have a word for, not that we were color blind. People "knew" about antifragility but did not have an explicit expression. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) People are not getting my tweet. My point is not that Russian disinformation aims to confuse (it does); it is that it is actually helping the "Western establishment" because real flaws will no longer be taken seriously. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@MichaelDasani There are a loooooot of sophisticated replies. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
4) Even nastier path is one sigma moves up to the strike then sits & decays from there. https://t.co/m1UUSxfp2P — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
The problem with anti-West & anti-establishment conspiratorial disinformation is that when real information comes out nobody will believe it. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@AndreasShrugged @Porkchop_EXP The tweet above was not mean. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mpolhill The grind is worse because you keep adding deltas. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
3) Not pretty. About 18 times premium lost under the nasty path: a grind up to the strike where you keep shorting more stock and losing on the hedge. \lambda is the vol multiplier; worst is when lambda is about .3 and S ends up at strike, 120. Breakeven is at 1.2 times vol. https://t.co/gMXECGqXx7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mpolhill @aaronbrask Then it is as if I rephrased: Very high vol as starting point. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@_KartikMenon So far, with slow vol, maximum is many many more times, 18 times the premia. Unless there is a mistake. I perturbate \lambda the vol multiplier for the grind. https://t.co/DehEXNBfN1 — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@ektrit Minerva Publishing — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@mpolhill Which is? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) Correction: $1,595 per million notional, was off a decimal. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
FINANCE QUIZ DU JOUR A call struck at K=120, for t= 66/252 trading days (.26 of a y) has a delta of .04 and a price of .1595 ($15,950 per million) when the underlying S=100. It is dynamically hedged daily at end of every day (total 66 x). You spend $15,950. What is the max risk? — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Porkchop_EXP I had an aphorism: Never do business in a country if you don't like their courts. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@Chunkuya1 That I block trolls is granted. But the bot will block all your friends as well. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
This is why I NEVER go to the UAE. The fellow put up a sarcastic tweet 2 year ago; he was arrested while visiting the UAE and, because he is Lebanese w/a v. weak state behind him, cannot get recourse. Nobody knows anything about his whereabouts. — PolitiTweet.org
EL kHALO @khaloAT
this is a Lebanese doctor who has been taken from his hotel room in abou dhabi 2 days ago ! Just because he wrote… https://t.co/L93WorDJzK
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@LebaneseConsult Yes Beirut wanted to be outside Lebanon. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@recognos_co Indeed, this is in line with Scott's argument. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
3) Venice occupied Cyprus only to secure trade routes, not for grain. (In Aleppo they were happy to have "comptoirs") Same for the Dutch. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
2) There are exceptions: Carthage went aggressive (occupied Sicily for agricultural land then got the Barcas). England became aggressive & occupied land. Switzerland was non aggressive but noncommercial early on. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
+ Agricultural states tend to be aggressive, centralized, & expansionary w/nationalistic narrative: Russia, France, China, pre-Bronze age Akkadians, Hittites... +(Maritime) City states are commercial, multicultural & tolerant. You expand by doing more trade, not invading lands. — PolitiTweet.org
Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb
@sonukg4india https://t.co/4fQNi51WP0 — PolitiTweet.org
