Eric Weinstein

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@PeterFerrari1 I live it. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

The theory was somehow that our system of novel selective pressures was now forcing man to actually reverse evolutionary “progress” out of necessity. I spent a fair amount of time thinking about how this satirical biology thy might actually make a great deal of sense. I was 11. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

In Akron Ohio, around 1976, a Dytstopic theory of De-evolution was born. I used to see this film at repertory cinema houses and Indy film festivals. Amateurish and punk to be sure, but far ahead of its time. “The Truth About De-Evolution” -DEVO https://t.co/rycic2nAHs — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@jim_rutt Traveling. Will write when back . — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@jim_rutt Perhaps. You can contact me privately Jim. Hope you are well. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@sjcorley @AnnaGBusse I have the same sense — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse This is Europe. In Vietnam I was under 10. This is quite different. And yes I worry. As you know, I consider Europe to be historically the most dangerous place in the world. The Disneyland of the post 1945 era doesn’t change that. Particularly in central and Eastern Europe. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Nice chatting with you Anna. As always. Hope your point continues to hold. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Let me end with the words of Edward Treller reflecting on his child with Stan Ulam of Luvov: “If we have a slim chance of survival [now], it lies in the possibility to get rid of wars.” I think you believe it is business as usual which carries risk. I believe that time is past. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse And with that “Like any war.” we see our divide starkly. To me it is clear that every conventional war involving the thermonuclear powers, US and/or PRC and/or Russia etc, is like no war ever fought before 1952. Even if we fight 100 which do not move into new territory. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@Not_Gladwin @AnnaGBusse I dunno. There is also the matter of the suspicious coordinates of the impact. I’m not a battlefield expert. I never served either. Etc. I know military geeks but am not competent to say what the hell happened or who is lying. Just being honest. Sorry. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse I think this has been a lot more dangerous than anyone is reflecting. And the entire world is in denial about this. We have given up on being rational. We just kind of hope things will work out as if all that can happen is 20th Cent conventional war w a few 21st century upgrades. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse My argument is this: the players aren’t skilled enough to be talking through battle. There are too many actual decision makers, way too close to Poland. Z has been a very effective loose cannon. P has endgame issues from a conventional loss & has non conventional options. Etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse I even think we agree. Your language is careful: “to me” “most likely” “P would/might do” Take them out? It reads: “The most Russians will do is use a dirty bomb in a city” and I know you would never say that. I think we agree to your 1st order description AND its inadequacy https://t.co/0kJrBFyO1O — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse This isn’t chess. These are battlefields with weather & alcohol & fatigue etc.. There are many players running around miscalculating. The 1st order description is just not good enough to be this close to the rubicon. That map of the conflict is NOT the territory of an actual war. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse To which I cry: Bullshit. I’m not supposed to say Z has been a loose cannon because he has been wronged by P. But Z IS a loose cannon. It’s part of what has made him charismatic & effective. Even if I grant you a 3-4 player game with N,P and Z, there isn’t enough skill to play. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Then, as if that wasn’t explicit enough, he took away more discretion by clarifying this meant WWIIi. Literally. Which Zelensky (Z) followed with requests for a no-fly zone at one point and “превентивные удары” (preventative strikes) at another. Something like that? Ballpark? — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Then you have the skill level of the players. Biden is 79 with a 1/20 chance of dying in any year with Kamala Harris on deck. He has said that P cannot remain in power and described that N has a “sacred obligation” to protect N (which now includes Poland since 1999). — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Okay. Here goes: I don’t see this world. I think it is a first order description at best. When you are this close to NATO territory, every field commander becomes a relevant decision maker. I think I calculated there was fighting 8 hypersonic seconds away from Poland. Wrong? — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse One can, in this description, work backwards. To avoid losing, both sides agree that they will exhaust all moves before triggering any obligate escalation to invocation of Article 5. Ergo, they both agree that they must always leave the other a way out despite their antagonism. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Okay. Assuming that I understand (which I may not), here is why I’m baffled. You have described a game with two players: NATO (N) and Putin (P). Both players may potentially be ‘atrocious’, but they are logical & self-interested: both N&P see annihilation in direct confrontation. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AngryLi0n1 @moestoes08 Anna and I have both agreed and fought intellectually for many years. I stand by my recommendation. To each his/her own. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Anyway, I’d rather hear your thoughts on how to stay away from the abyss. If you think I’m wrong about how close we have been to the brink, I’d love you to change my mind. Thx. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse Nor do I discount the need not to roll over in the face of Putin and his army. I just don’t sense from anyone’s rhetoric that we realize where we are. We are all engaged in magical thinking about why things are some distance away from the unthinkable. Both you and me included… — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

I wish many more people followed Anna. One of the smartest and toughest academic minds I have had the pleasure to know over the years. Particularly with respect to all things Poland…as a bonus. Give her a follow. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AnnaGBusse May you continue to be right about this Anna. I’m speaking somewhat obliquely, but I do not like that any bold field commander this close to Poland could choose to upset this delicate equation with a mere targeting error. This is way too close to Polish land. As you know… — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

@AleksDjuricic @ThanksElon3 @MoosaAkhunzada I think you are doing fine. — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

To reiterate: we have been on a knife’s edge for months & months. Whatever happened yesterday was a HUGE deal independent of whether it was a mistake, provocation, accident, false flag, etc. It doesn’t matter. Our reality and risk level is not reflected back to us. That is all.🙏 — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

I’m not going to pretend that what happened didn’t occur. That’s someone else’s shtick. But I’m also no longer going to pretend that people can be alerted to what is coming. It is only the subset of us who “don’t get it” to whom I’m talking. Recalculating. https://t.co/KKlEg4XXoX — PolitiTweet.org

Eric Weinstein @EricRWeinstein

We likely got tested. And our strategy was to basically ignore that as a real time crisis and refer it for further study. And our media did its job. It was just a Tuesday. I got maybe one news alert just like when Kim separated from Kanye or when Zendaya wore a stunning dress. — PolitiTweet.org