Perry Bacon Jr.

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

The candidates young Democrats are most wary of are Bloomberg and Biden, not Buttigieg. https://t.co/ZMwnzxIgoK — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

This question is a bit too binary for my taste, but white Dems are about as concerned about electability as black ones. Which makes me think stronger black support of Biden has other elements (he is well-liked, trusted, well-known, like Clinton in 16.) https://t.co/DPdt0Sho74 — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

The candidates who young Democrats are most weary of are Bloomberg and Biden, not Buttigieg. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Per new YouGov/Economist poll, the fewest Democrats would be "disappointed" if Booker or Warren were the nominee, compared to other candidates. Fits with what I have heard from voters about Booker throughout the race-liked but not first choice for voters. https://t.co/ZEdZdl70pb https://t.co/dQlWoIg6nH — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Per new YouGov/Economist poll, the fewest Democrats would be "disappointed" if Booker or Warren were the nominee. Fits with what I have heard from voters about Booker throughout the race--not their first choice but like him. https://t.co/ZEdZdl70pb — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @BenEhrenreich: Great piece on the 2010s as a decade of—successful—protest. Worth adding that outside the US, in 2019 alone, popular pro… — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Only a few polls have been done on the question of Trump's removal since the House voted to impeach. They show a fairly narrow plurality in favor of removal--so not a backlash to the vote but not an anti-Trump groundswell either. https://t.co/vhvtrHIdAI https://t.co/fi6OFbmZMv — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @AsteadWesley: Also Buttigieg's rise isn't driven by young people. Even if he wins Iowa that would not disprove the left's belief that t… — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @OsitaNwanevu: The reason why young progressives do not like Pete Buttigieg is that he very suddenly and aggressively began attacking pr… — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

It seems to me that young lefties are strongly attacking Pete for the same reasons older lefties are 1. They disagree with some of his policy views/rhetoric 2. They probably won’t have to vote for him eventually (unlike Biden). — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

It looks like 1. Biden and Sanders are saying the same things they've been saying for a while 2. Warren is past the Medicare for All morass https://t.co/PmNKhifyq5 3. Buttigieg, who has been effective in attacking others, is now honing in on Biden. https://t.co/B3eHzi48Uj — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Having two candidates who are not allied with the left shows the complexity of the moderate/conservative/non-left part of the Dems. Biden has a lot of support among voters who may not be donors, Buttigieg's base is the kind of people who donate. https://t.co/T7KJn9Ila0 — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Buttigieg's fundraising numbers are great and position him to win this race if things bounce his way in the early states. But Democratic donors are not very representative of the broader party, so this is a tricky metric in assessing his support. https://t.co/AnKYNW1u5E — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

It seems to me that young lefties are strongly attacking Pete for the same reasons older lefties are 1. They disagree with his some of policy views/rhetoric 2. They probably won’t have to vote for him eventually (unlike Biden). — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @nhannahjones: This was a fantastic goal and thread and shows the way reporters can make changes without waiting on leadership. Thank yo… — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

There were a bunch of important developments like 1. The struggles of Beto and Harris 2. Biden's strength even as he had to adjust his stances/rhetoric 3. The debate over wealth taxes 4. Candidates struggling to defend Medicare For All. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

The polling right now is very similar to early 2019: Biden well ahead, then Bernie, then Warren. But that doesn't mean all of the debates, speeches and events didn't matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

It is, right now, kind of hard, at least for me, to see Biden not winning the nomination. But no one has actually voted!! So lots of outcomes remain possible. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Big questions are of course: 1. Will a non-Biden candidate win Iowa and/or NH? 2. If so, do those wins affect voters outside of those states? 3. Does the non-Biden vote consolidate around one other candidate? — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

That said, the newish polls 1. have Biden at 30 or above (he has been in upper 20s much of the race) 2. Show that Buttigieg and Klobuchar's debate performances, which were praised by some, didn't do much for their national numbers. https://t.co/ELsPZLeCf9 — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Hard to say much about the race with only a few major polls having been released since the last debate (Dec. 19) and none in Iowa/New Hampshire. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @onesarahjones: working in media has disabused me of two early delusions: that an Ivy League degree denotes superior intelligence and th… — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @onesarahjones: I beg of you!! https://t.co/jyxUYbcum6 — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

My broader point is I don't know how polls will look in September, when Dems have a nominee, a vp and are unified. If Trump is leading in Virginia THEN, that would be something. But right now, I would be cautious about reading too much from this poll. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Democrats are winning virtually every statewide race in Virginia these days and major statewide races in Florida tend to be very close (1-2 points.) Perhaps Buttigieg, a Dem with fairly moderate views, would lose Virginia by 2 and Florida by 4 to Trump. But I'm skeptical. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

Biden at least right now seems to be stronger against Trump than the three other leading candidates.That said, I wonder if those candidates will look stronger as they become better known by voters (Buttigieg) and face fewer attacks from co-partisans (Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren.) — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

I think that generally the best answer to a question like "who is going to win race x or state y" is "I'm not totally sure." That said, worth noting that 1. today's Mason-Dixon polls are a bit outlier-ish 2. There is some evidence that outlier polls get outsized attention. — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @ThePlumLineGS: I would like to note that this concept @jayrosen_nyu developed -- that the press as an institution is in some basic sens… — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @JohnFPfaff: We spend $50 billion on prisons. • $3 billion goes to private prisons. • $35 billion goes to PUBLIC sector prison COs emp… — PolitiTweet.org

Perry Bacon Jr. @perrybaconjr

RT @JoyAnnReid: @AngryBlackLady I think there's a substantial share of Dem and Dem leaning voters who are exhausted by Trump and very badly… — PolitiTweet.org