Walter Shapiro

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@JonSeaton18 I was, of course, thinking about 2000. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@SendStephen Was also mostly true in '03 for the Democrats and '11 for the Republicans. Also true in '07 for both parties. And, of course, all three are prime numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

I think the moral about Beto and, to a lesser degree about Harris, is that handicapping a race in the spring of an odd-numbered year is foolhardy. Also, there is a major danger in peaking at the beginning: Beto with a $6-million day and Harris with 20,000-plus in Oakland. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

My immediate thought on the end of Beto's campaign is that his campaign manager, @jomalleydillon, has suddenly become the most coveted free agent in the Democratic Party. No one knows Iowa better. https://t.co/wtRjqEycYt — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

Don't know what she has in Nevada. But, as you know, it is a long, long 26 days from Iowa to SC. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@JonathanGrella @daveweigel Clearly candidates like Buttigieg and Biden have a different interpretation of NH. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

I know we've had successful candidates named McCain and Bill Clinton who have skipped Iowa. And we have had many who flamed out like Lieberman and Wesley Clark with this strategy. But I can't think of a winning candidate who ducked NH like Harris plans to. https://t.co/A2tSwDV7Sf — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

The old joke is a boring candidate like Scoop Jackson tried to give a fireside chat -- and the fire went out. If Trump tried a fireside chat, the rhetoric would be so inflammatory that the resulting fire would make Mrs. O'Leary's cow look like a piker. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@databyler That's why all the people with confident predictions should be shunned as political analysts. Instead, we are drowning in faux certainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@RobGeorge So hard to even figure this out because fleeting attitudes are shaped by who's up on TV in Iowa right now and who did well in the last debate. Best argument for Buttigieg and Klobuchar: Many voters still don't know them but will by February 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@chrisgeidner Most pollsters and political scientists I talk to about Iowa and NH think that these numbers are important. In 2004, Kerry and Edwards went from 15% support in December collectively to 70% of the caucus vote. And 2004 was the last caucus without a superstar Democrat. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@edokeefe @nytimes @SienaResearch It also shows that two-thirds of likely caucus-goers could still change their minds. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@chrisgeidner It's top level news because these are shallow, fleeting sentiments that are treated as if they are Election Eve voting intentions. The entire history of Iowa and NH is that these contests are highly volatile. And the way the media presents these polls totally masks that reality. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

The 9th graf of the online NYT poll story (after two charts and meaty analysis): "There is still plenty of room for shifts in political momentum: Two-thirds of likely caucusgoers in The Times poll said they could still be persuaded to change their minds." https://t.co/PPQyi0XcHL — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@HelenKennedy @SoundInsideBwy I only see them when they come here. I'm doing "The Inheritance" marathon on Saturday. But seriously, the Tracy Letts' play is great. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@HelenKennedy @SoundInsideBwy So glad you saw it. Along with the Tracy Letts' play "Linda Vista," this is a great fall for American drama that is not imported from London. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@ClydeHaberman That one got a laugh. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@LarrySabato Fascinating. Since I've seen it so often over the years, I can't judge. Hell, maybe the Democratic nominee should bring it back since the thought of Trump in the midst of a foreign policy crisis is chilling. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@ClydeHaberman Someday Twitter will have an edit button. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

I fear that Trump would do improv, changing the liens as he goes. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

And, given what Trump has done to political discourse, the equivalent of LBJ's "Daisy" nuclear war commercial would seem tame. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@tripgabriel Alas, it’s too cold for the delayed commuters to try to swim home, one pool at a time, as an homage to the Cheever short story, “The Swimmer.” — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

Why, oh why, as a New Yorker does the phrase "good riddance" keep running through my brain? — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

A smart, reported column by the exemplary @mcurtisnc3 on Pete Buttigieg and his quest to court black voters in South Carolina: https://t.co/tYONyptlzU — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@JamesFallows @chrislhayes Closest interpretation that I can come up with is that Ann Coulter knows that Tulsi will be in the Senate once Trump makes the entire legislative branch his appointees. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

Please, please, read this. It's the most glorious Halloween piece ever. And, more important, it is a shimmering tes… https://t.co/nn3NeyIoqi — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@gengn Maybe 10. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

@SenatorZero @republicofspin I believe, as well, that Reagan was a staunch defender. But being in Sacramento, Reagan was able to avoid having to comment every day. — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

All those Republicans lining up lockstep to defend Trump should read this great @republicofspin history of the after-effects of Nixon's impeachment for the GOP. Nothing is certain, but going down with the ship is not a ticket to historical greatness. https://t.co/6qIz90TY4D — PolitiTweet.org

Walter Shapiro @MrWalterShapiro

Someone close to Portman explained to me, "He knows that he can't change Trump's behavior, so what's the point in objecting?" Needless to say, a Republican senator could have also said in 1954, "He knows he can't change Joe McCarthy's behavior, so what's the point in objecting." — PolitiTweet.org