Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Someone has to say it: given his evidently poor impulse control, Elon Musk is looking like the Boris Johnson of tech — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The other day I let slip that we have a new cat (alas, Holmes). Jack is 9, spent 4 years in a shelter, is obviously happy to have a home, and understands the importance of hydration https://t.co/ThuLmyfetP — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Bottom line: wage growth still looks too high to be compatible with Fed target, but not by all that much. Maybe less than a percentage point 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In other words, underlying wage growth may be somewhat less than the headline numbers. No idea how big a deal this is, but certainly no reason to focus on the nonsupervisory number 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A corresponding concept for wages would focus on workers who are hired with relatively long contracts, with wages set with an eye on the future rather than current supply and demand. And managers are *more* likely to fit that concept than lower-wage, high turnover workers 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More broadly, should we be paying more attention to nonsupervisory wages than managers' wages? I'd argue the reverse. Think of why we have the concept of core inflation: we want less volatile prices, which are more likely to reflect expected future inflation 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This creates problems for what is ordinarily a very useful source, the Atlanta Fed wage growth tracker, which tries to measure median wage. In an equalizing market, median will rise faster than mean, which may give spuriously high numbers 4/ https://t.co/gIJoybYcu8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now, wage growth very different for supervisors and non, reflecting general equalization of wage rates prob bc of tight labor market 3/ https://t.co/hcud6BYog1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Given normal productivity growth, ~4% wage growth consistent with ~3% underlying inflation. Still above Fed target, but not by all that much 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A brief (?) thread about wages. I keep seeing people citing wage growth over the past year. But that's really unhelpful given that wage growth has clearly been slowing, and what we're interested in is the future (using log changes, if ur wondering). 1/ https://t.co/jm8JuMZdw0 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Oh yeah, and Ireland's 25 percent growth in 2015, which was all about corporate accounting fictions. So the best bet right now is that the official data are somehow off — although which way is TBD 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Later a big disconnect between US international investment position (negative) and net investment income (positive), probably reflecting corporate accounting tricks to avoid taxes 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Back in the 80s there was a mysterious disconnect between the falling dollar and import prices, which turned out to have a lot to do with probably over-egged hedonic adjustments to price indices 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Definitely the biggest disconnect on these numbers. But over my professional life I've seen some big disconnects on other numbers, usually involving international trade; the explanation always turned out to be bad data1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Ceci n'est pas une wage-price spiral. Actually consistent with ~3 percent underlying inflation. Also, remember that jobs data are for the payroll period including the 12th of the month, so may be a bit dated https://t.co/eKjMHGRPQ6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Old joke about the motorist who runs over a pedestrian, then tries to fix the mistake by backing up — and runs over the pedestrian a second time. I fear that something like that may be about to happen in economic policy. https://t.co/Z9wvHJHgwm — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Anyway, no idea what this tragedy means. But don't write it off as irrelevant. Japan still matters 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There's a caricature of Japan as a stagnant society. Aging, yes — but stagnant not at all. In fact remarkably dynamic in many ways. Writing them off as the future that never happened is all wrong. As others like @Noahpinion can tell you, we could learn a lot from Japan 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The other thing that happened on that trip was that I spent an extra few days there, and had a friend of a friend — a Japanese woman — show me some of Tokyo's vibrant cultural scene, the stuff most Westerners never see (or see without knowing what they're looking at) 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And it's a little known fact that in terms of sheer labor force participation, Japan has pulled far ahead of the US, although women are still largely restricted to lower-paid jobs 7/ https://t.co/e7MsmwJrbx — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I decided to spend some time arguing that given its demographics, Japan really needed to make better use of its women. But I never got to raise that argument, because he brought it up first. Whatever you say about him, Abe was not a simple social conservative 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Having done this sort of thing before, I knew the drill. I had an hour. 5-10 minutes of pleasantries; maybe 20-25 minutes on the substance (the phrase "achieving escape velocity" seemed to resonate with him.) But how to use the rest of the time? 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So I met him in 2016, to argue against raising the value-added tax, which could derail Japan's economic progress. As in other cases in my life, I was pretty clearly a stalking horse, a foreign expert brought in to add credibility to a domestic policy faction. Which is OK! 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

He was also, however, an innovative economic leader, willing to break with fiscal and monetary orthodoxy in an attempt to break Japanese deflation. And unorthodox in surprising other ways too 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

As many have noted, he was an apologist for Japan's war crimes — not forgivable — and something of a militarist, or at least an advocate of a Japan once again willing to use force. Nothing good to say about that 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

OK, one more shock: the assassination of Japan's former Prime Minister Abe. I have zero to say about what might lie behind it and what it means. But I can talk about my meeting with Abe in 2016; he was a complicated and interesting leader, not easy to characterize 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My cat, walking across the keyboard, just added "zVG©©" to my column in progress. Should I leave it in? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

5 year breakeven at 2.48. Out of control inflation expectations my ... asset https://t.co/7XAam0H1IG — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But the stagflation narrative is really collapsing. Unfortunately, it won't go down without a fight. A lot of economic commentators have been waiting years for the chance to posture sternly against runaway inflation, and really, really won't want to back down 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And retail prices are still a long way from reflecting the crash in wholesale prices, down almost $1 a gallon from the peak 8/ https://t.co/EWa89wGI0i — PolitiTweet.org