Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Alternatively: CBO's pre-Biden-package estimate of growth over the year is 3.7%. Again, subtract around 2 — and cut in half to get the reduction in the average gap over the year. So if we started ~6 down, average 2021 is ~5% down 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That may sound like mild overheating, but you need to subtract ~2% for normal growth, giving 5% of gap closing. So the GS estimate puts us close to but not over capacity by end year 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Goldman puts the "output gap" (slightly problematic concept in a pandemic, but OK for this purpose) at ~6% in late 2020. They also predict 7% growth over the course of this year, with the Biden package. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

First, where are we now (or rather where were we at the end of 2020)? We were about 4.5% below where we would have been if normal growth had continued from 2019 Q4. But I'm in the camp that says that even in late 2019 we were somewhat below capacity 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Let me do a brief thread that's both wonky and hand-waving about the numbers, and why I don't believe that we're facing drastic overheating despite a big relief package 1/ https://t.co/NGH8OfJsgt — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Cain's brother engaged in Abelism. Moses did irreparable damage to the marine environment when he parted the sea. Joshua created major noise pollution ... — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is the sensible version of the inflation concerns. I'm on the low end for multipliers, and would also argue that even if inflation runs somewhat high for a year it won't get built into expectations. But I guess we'll find out https://t.co/5krd5MVum6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @KevinWerner127: Hello, I've a blog on the child tax credit expansion. In our work for the National Academy of Sciences, we found that a… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

His classic paper on how labor scarcity led to slavery (in the New World) and serfdom (in Russia) had a huge impact on my thinking about history 2/ https://t.co/G98rmw6RGV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I took classes from Domar, which were peppered with stories from his Manchurian childhood. One that I liked was that some of the locals were suspicious of paper money — they would carefully inspect it to see if there were any holes 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: .@paulkrugman responded to readers commenting on his column, "Texas, Land of Wind and Lies." You can read their exchanges h… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Personal good news: got my 2nd vaccine. Time to party in a mosh pit! Actually, gonna keep double-masking until we all have the all clear. But it is a huge relief. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There's no way Ted Cruz could make himself even less of a sympathetic figure. Oh, wait https://t.co/imw01l2HI6 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @ThePlumLineGS: Good @paulkrugman piece arguing that GOP lies about Texas reveal a "raw denial of reality" in a "post-truth landscape,"… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

You guessed it 2/ https://t.co/zcudywJiIA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Germany is right to consider the AfD a threat to democracy. But you know who else constitutes a threat to democracy? 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @emilyrs: With Germany's domestic intelligence service potentially poised to surveil the entire far-right AfD party, I wrote about Germa… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

It's lies all the way down. Trump won the election; Antifa attacked the Capitol; environmentalists somehow caused the Texas power grid disaster. Oh, and Trump Jr. is now blaming the "Democrat governor", who happens to be a very right-wing Republican https://t.co/fwBS5Wo6Bf — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Lies about the Texas power disaster fit right in with lies about the insurrection https://t.co/fwBS5Wo6Bf — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: G.O.P. claims that environmentalists left Texas in the dark, @PaulKrugman writes, is "the energy-policy equivalent of claim… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Sigh. No love or indeed respect for Ted Cruz, but Gov. Abbott lying that wind power caused the Texas blackout is a much more important story than a stupid trip to Cancun. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also: "I should explain that I am not without bias in this matter. I have been attacked by Rush Limbaugh on the air, an experience somewhat akin to being gummed by a newt. It doesn’t actually hurt, but it leaves you with slimy stuff on your ankle." — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Since there have been some people talking about how Rush Limbaugh was funny, it's worth quoting Molly Ivins https://t.co/rRrg9bxAYE https://t.co/j0nsIOJBbw — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We've gone from Big Mistake to Big Lie. The official GOP response to the power outage is now in the same moral and intellectual universe as Stop the Steal and Jan 6 was a false-flag antifa operation. No acceptance of reality, let alone responsibility. This is a very sick party 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The Texas outage story has really changed character over the past 24 hours. It began as a horrible screwup/act of God, with plenty of blame to go around, but within the universe of past policy failures. The right's decision to blame it all on wind is different 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The other Moore's Law: if a fake fact gets out there, you know where to look first — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @adam_tooze: History versus Expectations - Early 1990s @paulkrugman catnip! Multiple equilibria, path dependency, cumulative causation… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @stone_lis: Tonight at 7:30 pm -- a panel of experts discusses how to rebuild fairly in “Economic Recovery for Whom?” Featuring @karlby… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Will keep working on this. But so far the lesson seems to be that extreme weather events — which are becoming more common thanks to climate change — can overwhelm any system unless you take expensive precautions 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

TX, unlike other states, doesn't have a capacity market to encourage reserve generation capacity, and its margins are a bit thinner than elsewhere. But as far as I can tell, not enough difference to have avoided this disaster 4/ https://t.co/BD9QXuhjgy — PolitiTweet.org