Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked March 19, 2021

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Fri Feb 19 20:45:15 +0000 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

That may sound like mild overheating, but you need to subtract ~2% for normal growth, giving 5% of gap closing. So the GS estimate puts us close to but not over capacity by end year 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Goldman puts the "output gap" (slightly problematic concept in a pandemic, but OK for this purpose) at ~6% in late 2020. They also predict 7% growth over the course of this year, with the Biden package. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2021

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Alternatively: CBO's pre-Biden-package estimate of growth over the year is 3.7%. Again, subtract around 2 — and cut in half to get the reduction in the average gap over the year. So if we started ~6 down, average 2021 is ~5% down 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2021