Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@HeerJeet This was probably true 5 or 10 years ago but I don't think reflects the contemporary reality at all. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wonder how monstrous of a disaster we'd be inviting by guaranteeing huge amounts of learning loss and social isolation among younger people based on haphazard interpretation of anecdotal evidence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BrandoStarkey: @NateSilver538 @thehowie A worse bias is the “perfection is always possible and because perfection didn’t happen, someon… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hindsight bias is a huge flaw in media coverage concerning everything from Afghanistan to COVID policy to how election campaigns are run. It's not easy to get all of the answers right given incomplete information in real time. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@paulg My theory has always been that literally just being exposed to random stimulus can trigger new ideas and you don't get a lot of stimulation from sitting in a quiet room. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie @aaronecarroll That sounds right to me, yeah. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@aaronecarroll Yeah, I assume they're not getting reported. Maybe you could set up something where you anonymously self-report your results to your state based on a serial number or something. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, as people are pointing out in the replies, as these things take off that could have some material impact on reporting of case and test numbers. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred But they also offer some superior qualities to in-clinic testing in certain ways. Available 24/7, more privacy, relatively cheap, don't have to sit in a waiting room with other people who may have COVID. I'm surprised they didn't become a big success right away. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin IDK, the growth there looks pretty nonlinear to me even relative to Delta. I kind of think they did a poor job of marketing and/or they didn't get much press coverage because COVID cases were low at the time they became available. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'll confess I only had a vague, fuzzy idea myself until I was walking through a CVS while I was thinking of getting a test and randomly saw one. (Pretty convenient FWIW and I think other consumers will find the same thing.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's sort of weird about this story is that over-the-counter COVID test kits have been available for a while now but interest in them has suddenly increased 10- or 20-fold in the past few weeks. https://t.co/2r16MttWZ0 https://t.co/hBCXVvZvyi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@wwwojtekk @JHWeissmann Yeah, Jordan's being inconsistent here. If he's thinking only of economics degrees per se, which are often the more highbrow, academic-y version of this family of degrees, a lot of his stereotypes probably don't fit. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah and I wonder where those degrees are syphoning off from. If I went to college today I think there's a good chance I'd have wound up majoring in CS rather than econ as "rigorous data-y thing with good employment prospects". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Cape Cod not alone here. Case growth has been pretty flat throughout the northeast (see below for NYC, CT, NJ, MA). https://t.co/Pk78kI8Qn2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, as that chart shows, career prospects are an enormous factor in which majors students choose. There's no evidence that econ is unique in this regard. And frankly it's elitist to suggest kids should pick majors purely for love of the subject matter. https://t.co/J3MwrSa9Q3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh, this is sort of misleading. Business and management is by far the most popular major. Finance is quite popular too. They aren't quite the same as economics degrees but they generally require a fair amount of economics coursework and there's otherwise a lot of overlap. https://t.co/lYPeILFZw4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred @bijans Also, the control group here is a set of infections with the *original* strain, whereas nearly all the breakthroughs are Delta. So Delta breakthroughs are less infectious than unvaccinated original strain, which implies infectiousness is reduced severalfold by vaccines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is what a lot of experts were saying all along but it was mostly drowned out in the panicky media coverage over breakthrough infections. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On some level it's literally a fight for all the good things about society and civilization vs. perspectives like this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias 11-year-old me is *very* on board with the "school sucks" take — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

LOL I give up if "actually, school isn't that important" is considered an astute take https://t.co/4cvRfnBdoO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: We are going to look back at the long delay to authorize the vaccine for 5-11 as one of the biggest avoidable mistakes of t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also at many colleges econ is the only social science where you're at least decently likely to be exposed to non-left-wing ideas. So if we want some degree of intellectual pluralism in media, the idea of journalists slagging the importance of econ makes me a little nervous. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When I went to college I was debating between being a physics major and an econ major and found the introductory physics courses a lot more alienating (so I majored in econ). Lots of formal and hard (at least to me) math and little focus on conceptual understanding. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When people respond with comments like "WHAT ABOUT THE KIDS?!?"...the whole point in some sense is the kids. I worry greatly about the educational and emotional development of children under social isolation. It's a shitty situation but it's important to understand the risks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Immunocompromized is one thing but one of the biggest faults in media coverage right now is in not giving people proper context on the very low risks of severe outcomes in children. This is a good explainer on that: https://t.co/D3mOwIjpD0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The New York Times has always been incredibly shitty about giving credit to other news outlets. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: How climate models work: https://t.co/8tAHjH2zFh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kmedved: @NateSilver538 It's a bearish signal for our ability to catch data fraud like this when the cases we *are* finding are mind bo… — PolitiTweet.org