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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

JEB: Nothing has worked. He's toast, surely? But sometimes the guy who beats his polls is the last one you'd expect. https://t.co/yyUpL82XUm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RUBIO: Media will overreact to whatever he does. What matters more: 1) knock Jeb! out 2) hit 20%+ on Super Tuesday. https://t.co/yyUpL82XUm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

CRUZ: SC demos suggest he may beat his polls -- and he probably needs to in order to have a viable delegate path. https://t.co/yyUpL82XUm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

TRUMP: Not quite a lock, crazy s*it happens in SC, but a heavy favorite. It matters if he wins with 41%, 34% or 27%. https://t.co/yyUpL82XUm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's our final-ish South Carolina preview. https://t.co/yyUpL82XUm — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BuzzFeedAndrew: Here's audio of Trump in 2002 saying to invade Iraq on the Howard Stern Show https://t.co/KoNW4Mo9TH — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 19, 2016 Retweet Deleted Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Throwing out" outlier polls, instead of averaging them, can actually bias your impressions of the race quite a bit. https://t.co/9yEbLe7Qg1 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How to think about seeming outlier polls: Including them in the average > ignoring them > obsessing over them — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Endorsement points since Iowa: Rubio 47 Cruz 3 Carson 1 (!) Bush 0 Kasich 0 Trump 0 https://t.co/cOwxHWW8gs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @aedwardslevy: The idea of a growing rift between Clinton/Sanders supporters continues not to hold much traction with actual voters http… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Retweet Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Within GOP, Catholics are overrepresented in winner-take-all & take-most states. Could be building block for Rubio. https://t.co/WwhPxLxJry — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Remember when Catholics were swing voters? Actually, they still are. Catholics went 50-48 for Obama in 2012. https://t.co/WwhPxLxJry — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Among Republicans, 56% have a favorable view of Pope Francis, and 21% an unfavorable view: https://t.co/WwhPxLxJry — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our model's like "no idea what's going on in Nevada why are you making me forecast this". https://t.co/GXCgdd7OTm https://t.co/E7NfcZWEfC — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanFosterType: Depends on how divided the field is. 35% can get you a LOT of delegates if it's the plurality. Not so many in 2/3-way race. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

BTW, there are a LOT of Catholics in states like NJ, WI, PA, NY that vote later on, many of which are winner-take-all or take-most. (5/) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Alienating those GOP swing voters (a lot of Catholics are likely in that group) and doubling down on his base is a risky long-run plan. (4/) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump needs to get from his 25-35% base to 51% at some point. Large % of GOP voters have ruled him out. Not many "swing voters" left. (3/) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

True, not a lot of Catholics in South Carolina or on Super Tuesday. Could help Trump there? But that's missing the bigger picture. (2/) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The quickly-congealing "pope feud will actually help Trump!!!" conventional wisdom is a little superficial IMO. (1/) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This will make you question your understanding of reality. (Don't worry it's about gravitational waves not Trump.) https://t.co/dHa13nPLiv — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Yair_Rosenberg: In other news, irony was found dead today, in an apparent suicide. https://t.co/tuM93AHi9x https://t.co/3hzu0DT01C — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Retweet Deleted Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/AY4pO4huSJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Wait is this real or did the rest of you decide to play a real funny joke in the 10 minutes I wasn't reading twitter https://t.co/upkNUtykLF — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated
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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

SC polls conducted entirely after the GOP debate have Trump at ~33% on average, versus more like ~36% before: https://t.co/Bv6a1pnwnt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 18, 2016 Hibernated