Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 @lymanstoneky @ritwik_priya The FT article says 62% of unvaccinated Indians had antibodies. And, IIRC, those antibody estimates can somewhat underestimate the attack rate, although how much isn't so clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky @phl43 @ritwik_priya Government estimated that 2/3 of people had antibodies as of July. So, yeah, even if India had a low-ish IFR because of its younger population, you get to some very scary numbers. https://t.co/GCqCki76IN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Keep Newsom opening up a pretty decent lead now. https://t.co/tjsNncjGrY https://t.co/rPodfshAyx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @RalstonReports: Big news for #IndyFest, our annual conference: @PeteButtigieg has agreed to join the program, and I will sit down with… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thinkingpoker I mean, I think germaphobe is an important qualifier. I'm not a germaphobe, but if someone was hacking up a lung at the table, I'd think I and other players might call the floor over. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thinkingpoker Second column (starting with fake vaccine pass scandal) is +EV I think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This was a fun one — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the one hand, you don't want the White House dictating the FDA's policy. On the other hand, the FDA takes waaaaaaaay too long on everything (say, approving COVID vaccines for kids) and that partly reflects its political and bureaucratic incentives. https://t.co/bwWYwkcutY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting thread re: boosters. Makes an important distinction between 3rd doses (probably inevitable in wealthy countries for political & other reasons and will plausibly do some good) and *continuously* boosting (maybe not a good idea especially with current vaccines). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My default is: let vaccinated people (and kids) live their lives, and you can place some pretty heavy burdens on unvaccinated adults until hospitalizations come down significantly. Is that perfect? No, and I favor some exceptions to it. But it's at least semi-coherent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID policy has become purely ad hoc and reactive. There's no strategy, there's no endgame, there's no philosophy, there's no internal consistency, there's no cost-benefit analysis, there's no metrics to define success, there's no consensus on what we want to accomplish. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Canada currently has about 7 COVID-19 cases per 100k people, about one-seventh the rate of the US and less than half that of the lowest US state (Maine, 18 cases per 100k people). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In any event, the goal is to prevent severe outcomes and death. Out of 15,000 people tested in the 98% vaccinated Duke community, there are NO cases severe enough to wind up in the hospital. Yet they're imposing substantial new burdens on students. *This* is losing the plot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

p.s. The very high rate of asymptotic cases is interesting data. Usually, people aren't routinely being tested so there is self-selection bias. But they are on some college campuses. OTOH, the positivity rate is *so* low that some of these could be false positives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JenniferNuzzo They're already doing regular surveillance testing. And if they can't handle this very low caseload, that's on them and shouldn't result in substantial burdens to the students. Again, almost nobody is sick from COVID in this 98% vaccinated campus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How is it placing "significant stress" on the system if *none* of the cases are hospitalized and almost all of them are asymptotic and the overall positivity rate is just 1.6%? This is a great example of the vaccines working. https://t.co/xz4RhgHw2g https://t.co/zvEreiY02k — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Briefly get flattered that I'm still getting carded at NYC bars at age 43 then realize they're just asking for my vaccine pass. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @phl43: The main reason I'm not optimistic that we're going to leave the pandemic behind anytime soon is that it has become a great way… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with "erring on the side of caution" is that it has high potential to lead to a slippery slope unless there's some sort of limiting principle in place. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with "erring on the side of caution" is that has high potential to lead to a slippery slope unless there's some sort of limiting principle in place. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TPCarney A few weeks ago I got into fights with folks on here because I said was fine with indoor mask mandates but was worried about drift into other, harsher restrictions. And those folks said "this is just about masks, that's all that's on the table." And of course that wasn't true. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@nycsouthpaw Yeah that was one of the dumbest things I've ever tweeted. "Let's Just Trust The Experts" is a great slogan. But it's not easy to determine what constitutes expertise is a context like this one. And blind trust in experts probably makes experts perform worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's pretty insane to put such harsh restrictions in place on a campus where **everybody is fully vaccinated**. Some people have really lost the plot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sdbaral @mugecevik I'm also very curious about heterologous (hope I'm using that term the right way) boosters. Some countries *do* have a fair bit of J&J and AZ just sitting around. Might they be better for mRNA recipients than an mRNA booster? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sdbaral @mugecevik My position is sort of weird because I think in a rational* world, we'd boost elderly/immunocompromised/health care workers and wait on the rest. But in the real world, we still seem somewhat locked into a "zero COVID" mentality. * I know how loaded that term is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sdbaral @mugecevik In other words, if the messaging people are getting from the media and from *some* (definitely **not** all) experts is that breakthroughs are a huge deal and must be quashed, it's going to be hard to resist a fix that can quash breakthroughs, at least in the short run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sdbaral @mugecevik I'm OK with the idea that the hurdle for boosters should be a little higher, even if there are a lot of uncertainties about supply constraints. But I also think there are a lot of mixed messages right now about how much one should worry about breakthrough infections... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mugecevik FWIW I *do* think there's a decent argument that breakthrough infections aren't that big a deal for youngish, healthy adults so we can take our time figuring out the right way to boost (if it all) for those groups. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mugecevik So, I'm not convinced there's necessarily a fixed supply of doses at the relevant time horizons, or that a booster in a wealthy country trades off with an initial dose elsewhere, especially given political constraints. It's a plausible claim but it requires more evidence IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah. Lots of questions. It may also be that breakthrough infections just aren't a big deal for healthy vaccinated adults <60 since they're very unlikely to result in severe outcomes. If breakthroughs can *transmit*, though, still an argument for boosting to < community spread. — PolitiTweet.org