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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @amanbatheja: Can we all agree this is the greatest 3-tweet story in the history of Twitter? https://t.co/mmUpr6JRhc — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Data on this squares well with @mckaycoppins reporting: https://t.co/tHEVU2dCy7 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's surprising to me that Trump still has no endorsements at all from members of Congress. You'd expect a couple backbenchers/opportunists. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Here's the thing about Nevada, though. Turnout is TINY. In 2012, only 1.9% of the voting-eligible population participated in GOP caucuses. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Based on Facebook data, NV should be an average-ish GOP state. Maybe a pinch Trump-leaning. https://t.co/PhhVGaJuxj https://t.co/MH0t3qoQEC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Not sure why Jeb dropped out when his 8-6-7-5-3-0-9 plan was working so perfectly. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jonathanchait: Devout Trump skeptics, as opposed to reformed Trump skeptics like me, would also put more emphasis on "Party Decides" stuff. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jonathanchait: True-blue Trump skeptics definitely think Trump is the underdog. But they could be wrong. That's what market prices reflect. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trump won New Hampshire easily after surprising loss in IA. Rubio was terrible in NH, then surged big time in South Carolina. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One concept that hasn't had a very good GOP race so far: "momentum". Both NH and SC results went against "momentum" in many respects. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A good night for Trump, but Trump skeptics see a lot to like in the results too. https://t.co/j3guoS4nPa — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
My South Carolina post-mortem: https://t.co/j3guoS4nPa — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ForecasterEnten @micahcohen : How did you guys get a 1000-word analysis on Bush dropping out turned around so fast? https://t.co/YxWM2261ms — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ForecasterEnten: Different story if it's 32.7 percent though, you gotta admit. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @asymmetricinfo: Nota bene: the reason people think that other folks dropping out helps Rubio is that that’s what polls show. https://t.… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Does it really matter whether Rubio finishes in second or third? https://t.co/9oiH87qEEO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
On the LONG list of things we've gotten wrong/right this cycle, our early & often Jeb skepticism looks pretty good. https://t.co/gUhEgbiXdW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Basically, everybody can point to some evidence for their Theory Of Trump tonight. https://t.co/8AIJfTatRQ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, this is basically where the markets had the race this morning, so they view SC as something of a wash relative to expectations. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
You could argue for shading things 5-10% in one direction or another, but this seems basically reasonable IMO. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Betfair: Trump 45-50% chance to win the nomination. Rubio 35-40% the field 10-15% https://t.co/iEpSgzBZuC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Now, Rubio might not gain enough to win. Or other candidates might not drop out soon enough. But it's a simple, highly defensible theory. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Bullish case on Rubio is not complicated. It's that he'll gain as other candidates quit. Lots of data supports that. https://t.co/P6LUhBG6Lq — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This could wind up looking pretty good, although will probably wind up being a bit low on Cruz and Rubio. https://t.co/tj3Dg5Khv2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We're liveblogging South Carolina. Could be a long night: exit polls show a closer race than pre-election polls: https://t.co/rgjBJ3IITI — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FiveThirtyEight projects that Jeb Bush will NOT win the South Carolina primary. https://t.co/z4ShRprhEG — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People forget how much turnout varies from state to state. https://t.co/2gRpm3hP9r — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Does NOT necessarily mean he'll lose South Carolina since he began with a BIG cushion. But suggests he might have a ceiling in long-term. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trump’s struggles with late-deciding voters are a big problem for him. Maybe his biggest problem. https://t.co/ystYjE14zy — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @TheStalwart: What's crazy is not the Insta-forming of a new narrative. It's how that new narrative is presented as if it were always ob… — PolitiTweet.org
