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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, seems increasingly clear that Sanders *has* improved with Hispanics. But would love to get more polling of states like NM, AZ, FL, NY. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Working on an update to this (https://t.co/ZIY0aJwble) & finding that ruralness is a good predictor of Bernie vote. Makes sense, I think? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @adrian_gray: Here is how Trump's favorability compares to every nominee since 1992 https://t.co/fytFSDp8wB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @LPDonovan: Clinton '92: +3 w/ <2/3 name ID Trump '16: -22 w/ 4 decades of cultural ubiquity Otherwise good comparison, though https://… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ClareMalone: I taped this podcast parked in a fire lane outside a Ted Cruz rally because my life is really glamorous. https://t.co/ENOA… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @jodyavirgan: New @FiveThirtyEight elections pod! We play candidate buy/sell/hold +Harry drinks weird soda https://t.co/EfzNvm7rAM https… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
GOP voters may make it a 2-man race even if candidates don't. https://t.co/TyGT5ohtpZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OSCAR PICKS!: https://t.co/DsY8gMTeW5 Disclaimer: model's only about 70-75% accurate historically, Oscars are tough to predict. Fun though! — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@dandrezner: Sort of. Trump does well in Northeast and South, middling in Midwest, bad in West (NV is an exception). It's an odd coalition. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But Trump at 50% in Massachusetts! That's not the same as Utah and New Mexico! HOW IS THIS EVEN POSSIBLE? https://t.co/HMsr9V6Bvw — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trump 24% in New Mexico. It's almost as though Americans in different states aren't exactly the same as one another. https://t.co/q4wuWLGUPE — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Rubio has caught up to McCain '08, Kerry '04 endorsement pace. Of course, those guys had won states by this point. https://t.co/cOwxHWW8gs — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trump at just 18% in Utah! Looks like he has a ceiling! Or it could be that candidates numbers differ across states? https://t.co/2aL9ORPftN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
https://t.co/j3guoS4nPa https://t.co/TtfNz0K8N9 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Idea of something being "priced in" is counterintuitive for many people, but especially the media which by its nature tends to be reactive. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Main trend at betting markets over past week has been Rubio picking up % from Cruz, Bush, etc. Trump steady at ~50%. https://t.co/Q9AMupsRp2 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Perspectives: -- Media thinks NV, SC were game changers for Clinton, Trump. -- Betting markets showed little change in nomination odds. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @RalstonReports: How hard to poll NV? CNN in '08 two days before GOP: McCain-29 Huck-20 Romney-19 Rudy-14 Paul--6 --- Actual: Romney--51… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Geeked about 538's science team! Maggie (@maggiekb1) joins Christie Aschwanden (@cragcrest) and @annabarryjester. https://t.co/IR7Q76YON6 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: Hiring news! @maggiekb1, former NYT Mag columnist and Boing Boing science editor, will be joining us as a full-time sc… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If Kasich finishes a distant 2nd/3rd even in VT & MA on Super Tuesday, does he drop out? https://t.co/VptBZo0Y5y — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@MileHighBrendan: Meh, I think people are making too much out of ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ stories on a slow news day. No change in betting markets FWIW. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trump is actually pretty weak out west in their polling. But not in NV, where there are lots of transplants and casinos. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW, Trump's best states according to Morning Consult polling: New Jersey 51% Massachusetts 48% Nevada 48% Mississippi 47% (Nat'l Avg: 36%) — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ObsoleteDogma: Or nobody gets to 50% delegates and he loses at a contested convention. Ugly but possible. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People who retweet praise of themselves go to hell. People who subtweet go to heaven. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@matthewjdowd: I'm also a probabilist, so I know forecasts sometimes go wrong, but the empirical method has a pretty darn good track record. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@matthewjdowd: Guilty as charged of being an empiricist and trying to ground my claims in evidence. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@matthewjdowd: He hasn't won. And you should read what I actually wrote about Trump: https://t.co/F3Nsg8AnTD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@matthewjdowd: Trump wound up losing 3-4 points in 10 days in South Carolina despite allegedly having "momentum" after New Hampshire. — PolitiTweet.org