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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The idea that Republican dissenters would rally around Trump relies upon a theory of parties that a Trump nomination will have disproven. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Point here: a lot of professional-class Republicans might be better off opposing Trump and regrouping for 2020 than handing over the party. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@CarlBialik: I think it's more that HRC could be elected despite being quite unpopular, because Trump is even less popular. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also to consider: in 2020, Hillary Clinton would be 72, gunning for her party's 4th straight term, possibly quite unpopular. Tough re-elect. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People are probably underrating what a shitshow the GOP convention will be, even presuming that it's not contested. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DouthatNYT: Poll back in January had Rubio very narrowly ahead. https://t.co/AkoEmAvPOx — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Say: * Trump wins everywhere on 3/1 except Texas (Cruz) and Minnesota (Rubio) * Rubio finishes > Cruz almost everywhere. Does Cruz drop out? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Simple average of recent polls in non-Texas Southern Super Tuesday states (all pre-debate/Christie): Trump 37 Rubio 21 Cruz 16 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrishanretty: I also think some of the fundamentals-based models are fairly overfit on small sampels: https://t.co/AQUTQdCZlZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrishanretty: I think the fundamentals-based models make a lot of implicit assumptions about the candidates that Trump might violate. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If it's a Trump nomination, we may wind up stripping a lot of priors out of our general election forecast. More of a "polls-only" version. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
They're buddies. They're bullies. And they can offer one another opportunities. https://t.co/uEXxAEnOSB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Christie's endorsement of Trump totally makes sense. https://t.co/uEXxAEnOSB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Christie for VP? Only problem is that he has -18% net favorable rating (https://t.co/hiajfKovyc), almost as bad as Trump's. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Welp, this would explain why Chris Christie never really went after Donald Trump. https://t.co/n2xh6wE4Jd — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Meanwhile, Clinton's state polls have started to look really good for her. Sanders has a lot of catching up to do. https://t.co/2HFadCX6LN — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Marco Rubio finally emerges as the Anti-Trump: https://t.co/j5sydmQsIZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Rubio attacking Trump is as much about becoming the anti-Trump focal point as peeling off Trump supporters. https://t.co/nRlFSFYQaO — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
About 2,700 Hispanics voted for Trump in Nevada, out of about 800,000 Hispanics in the state. https://t.co/GvkZLWlCeL — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yuge spike in Google searches for Trump after Rubio asked people to Google Trump. https://t.co/ZxI3aOooE3 https://t.co/H4i3Ocyg23 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
My view: it's time for Rubio to attack Trump. https://t.co/UCDs73PTpY — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The GOP debate is actually starting now, and here is our liveblog : https://t.co/pBK5wMzM9Z — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Partly it's that Rubio has exhausted the media's patience with his second place "victories" so standards now higher. That's reasonable. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@chrislhayes: He's within the margin of error in a region that's not supposed to be very good for him. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
And that's a poll of mostly southern, Super Tuesday states that shouldn't be especially favorable to Rubio. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Don't get why people think Bloomberg poll is great news for Trump. It shows Rubio narrowing gap from 17% to 4% if other candidates drop out. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @DrewLinzer: Most long-term forecasts of the presidential election are way overconfident. My research with @BenLauderdale: https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @WaltHickey: I read 100s of For Your Consideration ads to show studios messed up & need to be held accountable for #OscarSoWhite https:/… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I hate this kind of self-referential argument. But possible Rubio needs to go after Trump tonight just because that's what the media wants. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
States we think Sanders needs to win on Mar. 1 to be on track for nomination: VT, MN, CO, MA. Also probably OK & TN. https://t.co/09bAIY4OEt — PolitiTweet.org
