Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

OK, but why are Americans fearful of breakthroughs? I'd suggest it's largely because of the mixed messages they're hearing from public health officials and the media, which often imply that vaccinated people should behave with a *lot* of caution rather than "returning to normal". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've said before that I didn't think it was obvious that greater caution toward COVID would come to be the liberal position in the US. This is one reason why. People avoiding in-person contact tends to hurt the community services & cultural amenities that liberals usually like. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @LaurelRosenhall: Had fun talking CA #RecallElection today on @FiveThirtyEight with @galendruke @NateSilver538 & @paulmitche11 — thanks… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The vaccine companies were—unavoidably—doing a lot of educated guesswork with their dosing regimens. Which is why regulators ought to be relatively willing to adjust to new evidence rather than treating whatever protocols were chosen in clinical trials as the word of God. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some ways, I'm surprised that the higher end of the leisure-hospitality sector hasn't gotten more aggressive about implementing vaccine requirements purely as a revenue-maximizing strategy. I'd think there would be a market for vaccinated-only hotels or flights, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting that people who regularly attend NFL games say they're more likely to attend games with a vaccine requirement, more so than in the population overall. I'd guess this partly reflects socioeconomic status (games are $$$; most high-income people are vaccinated). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky I think the evidence is sort of all over the place in that even within the same countries, some policy choices imply a low casualty tolerance and others a fairly high one. And it may all be too irrational to infer much of a signal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing that's gotten lost in the panic over breakthrough infections is that vaccine entry requirements for mass gatherings (sporting events, etc) as well as higher-risk indoor settings (gyms, etc) are still a pretty reasonable way to manage the pandemic until cases come down. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave Having mask requirements in spaces *where everyone is vaccinated* is harder to defend, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave I mean, it clearly wasn't enforceable to have mask requirements that applied only to unvaccinated people. So I'm not too concerned with universal masking requirements in crowded indoor places with high hospitalization rates, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's a convincing case that we should really be accelerating work and regulatory approval on Delta-specific vaccine updates, even if the current vaccines work pretty well for *now*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden I mean there is evidence that Delta viral loads peak early in vaccinated patients. Which would support the idea that if you're ever going to develop symptoms, it's probably fairly soon in your infection. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden I think part of it might be that an asymptomatic breakthrough case is fairly unlikely to eventually become symptomatic, whereas an asymptomatic non-breakthrough often will. I wish there were better data on this stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @svscarpino: Here's the truly under-appreciated point--because of our antiquated and under-funded public health data systems we're still… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, yeah, if you're vaccinated and feel unwell—or have a close contact—stay home and get tested. But as a vaccinated person, you probably don't need to live in fear of unknowingly, asymptomatically spreading to others. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This seems like an underappreciated point: COVID spread by *asymptomatic* vaccinated people is probably very uncommon. https://t.co/qIOlRKGuKY https://t.co/6kVhh04uuh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not the entire answer but COVID policy views are much more polarized along ideological lines in the US than elsewhere. In that sense I'm not sure the issue is misinformation so much as people making (sometimes costly and/or irrational) expressions of political identity. https://t.co/ZRpiF5eckr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's partly because there's a puritanical streak in America's public health establishment and they were worried that people would (gasp!) begin seeing friends and family because of the "false sense of security" that tests provide. https://t.co/WOAdZO36Ii — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Nashville (#36) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @michaelmina_lab: But alas, despite lots of data and decades of science, it does not seem that even someone like @EricTopol can break th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MonicaGandhi9: Does anyone besides me feel that the messaging over the last month in the US has basically served to terrify the vaccina… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@wwwojtekk The dosage of Moderna was quite a bit larger. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MarcGoldwein: https://t.co/jbjiels55T — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @neontaster: Much like mask mandates instead of vax mandates, there is an infuriating obsession with catering to the people who remain u… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@LPDonovan @Nate_Cohn Also the sensation that "things are spinning out of control" (which many voters were hoping to avoid under Biden after four years of Trump) gets a lot worse when there are multiple crises at once, which Delta and Afghanistan combined to provide. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A lot of sounds like a bureaucratic turf war as much or more as a fight over "the science". At some point people are just gonna decide on their own when to boost. https://t.co/uCpsovhJWn https://t.co/kYDYdwYCYF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whatever you think of boosters this seems like kind of a dumb reason for the FDA to delay boosters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I asked someone who knows the biotech/pharma space this question the other day and their answer was basically that there's no reason to think the existing vaccines won't work well to boost against Delta. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Personally I tend to agree with you in part because I'm not that convinced by arguments about boosters trading off with supply elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also why the White House is strongly pushing boosters. There's a good argument we don't need boosters yet because breakthrough infections are generally very mild and generally don't transmit that easily. Lots of vaccinated people aren't behaving like that though. — PolitiTweet.org