Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred The thing is, I assume people who are really determined to get a booster will get one anyway, especially since the criteria of "underlying medical conditions" based on "individual benefit and risk" is both broad and self-attested. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Was watching the hearing and some members were leaning into the idea that vaccines are mostly about the *direct* benefit of protecting oneself from severe disease & less about transmission/protecting others. It was a nuanced discussion but still seems like a semi- paradigm shift. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart @markets #MintThePuck — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart @markets Joe this has been bugging me all day, there's actually a pretty strong (although logarithmic rather than linear) relationship between the denomination of US coins and their diameter. A trillion dollar coin should have a diameter of ~3.5 inches, a bit bigger than a hockey puck. https://t.co/6jMKj8cuyr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hope this is true but seems like a difficult modeling problem, not least because there are all these different categories of immunity to deal with (vax, possibly with different degrees of waning depending on the vaccine; natural; hybrid; vax w/ booster). https://t.co/AIqQidXmhy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi It's hard to know, but it wouldn't shock me if there's a difference between the urban Northeast (which has high levels of natural immunity on top of high levels of vaccination) and the rural Northeast (which somewhat lacks the former). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I think there was also sort of a one-off shock caused by poor CDC & media messaging, which went from "vaccinated people can't transmit" to "vaccinated people transmit just as easily" in about 30 seconds, and now people are finally coming to a more nuanced understanding. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen A decent measure of COVID anxiety IMO is the number of Google searches for COVID-related topics and that's dropped quite a bit over the past few weeks. (A lot steeper than the decline in cases.) https://t.co/17m9LHTMdM https://t.co/HXGXDd0ZOu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss I don't really agree but I do think there should be advanced disclosure with dining companions about whether you're a desserter or not. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende @robbysoave @DKThomp They have the option to get tested, though! That is a pretty major accommodation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave @DKThomp It's been interesting that NYC has had both fewer restrictions and IMO more well-targeted ones as compared with DC and the West Coast. My theory is that people here regard public life as more essential than they might elsewhere; NYC doesn't "work" if everyone stays home. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave @DKThomp I'm as critical as you are about some of what is happening on e.g. college campuses. But state and local governments, for the most part, *aren't* imposing too many restrictions other than vaccine-related stuff. NYC doesn't even have an indoor mask mandate, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@karlbykarlsmith @DKThomp @robbysoave I think what you'd probably want (maybe in addition to other options) is proof of antibodies. If someone tests positive with an at-home test, stays home for 10 days with a mild case, there may never be any official record they had COVID. But they should still be antibody+. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave @DKThomp One reason I'm pretty eager about vaccine mandates is that I think they're much less burdensome to individuals than alternatives like lockdowns that might be pursued in their absence. A vaccine-*or testing* requirement is even less burdensome. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp I mean I think from a strictly utilitarian standpoint, you can argue it's a bad idea *if it's likely to be struck down*. I haven't really seen many great analyses of how likely that is, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Sometimes reading an unpersuasive critique is the most persuasive defense of a position. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart In most of the major Vegas poker rooms right now, poker chips and casino chips are one-and-the-same. *Tournaments* have their own chips with no cash value, though. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 -- CNN is making big changes to how it conducts polls -- What Rep. Anthony Gonzalez's retirement means for the… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Probably true but it seems like they may also be correctly reading the politics of their environment, i.e. reflecting the preferences of parents (and to a lesser extent faculty). Parents of students at elite colleges aren't exactly known for their lack of neuroticism. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Repeating myself a bit but I genuinely don't know (any SF politics experts on here?) the extent to which it's "her" policy, either in terms of her ever particularly having embraced it or in terms of statutory authority. https://t.co/zfbag5ZRLo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Given their structural disadvantages in the Senate I think you can argue Democrats are pretty lucky to have as many as 50 seats right now. Both GA races could easily have gone the other way, NH in 2016 was *very* close, strong D candidates held on in red WV, OH, MT in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@germanrlopez I think there's a question as to whether she was really behind the requirement in the first place. It seems to have been implemented by a group of eight Bay Area county health officials. https://t.co/n9Yb9jvbWy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave Is it really "her" mandate though, or one imposed by city/county health officials? She's clearly (and almost proudly) undermining the mandate but I don't know that it's hypocritical per se. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT It's perhaps worth observing that COVID debates are much more polarized online than IRL, even relative to other issues that are also more polarized online. Lots of "controversial" COVID positions actually attract supermajority support. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @JustinWolfers Worldometers is similar (~1600 currently). The question is whether you attribute deaths to the day of reporting or the day of death. Both may eventually reach 2K, though only the former is there right now and it could also be holiday lags, etc. https://t.co/qTD00nn5YQ https://t.co/n0claH4258 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers Yeah, death counts seem to be more lagging than in previous waves. Though, FWIW, it depends on the source and method of accounting, e.g. the CDC doesn't have us there yet. https://t.co/uuQz9U07pJ https://t.co/vtZK6wNxun — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's vax-or-test mandate is actually fairly popular. So is a vaccine requirement for indoor activities. Again, not really a surprise when 75% of adults have taken at least one vaccine dose. https://t.co/XrpziRusRs https://t.co/vYanhFXAtT — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The positivity rate in NYC is still headed down, however. (Doesn't necessarily apply to all of the Northeast — VT/NH/ME have had admirably few COVID cases relative to the rest of the country so far and so may have less natural immunity than say NY/NJ/CT/Eastern MA.) https://t.co/PQG4T3RrMi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd think a lot of the testing surge in the Northeast has to do with schools and colleges reopening. In NYC, for instance, we see a big increase in testing rates in people under 25 years old while it's flat for other groups. https://t.co/2cHGUwgSaI https://t.co/3bMi42wj24 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting. Folks have been confusing "redistricting helps Republicans a lot relative to some nonpartisan baseline" (true) and "redistricting helps Republicans a lot relative to 2012-2020" (not really, because 2010 redistricting was also favorable for them). — PolitiTweet.org