Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JSEllenberg @awprokop I'd guess I've had a conversation with 50ish % of my friends in which they said they know/believed they'd had COVID. Maybe a few false positives in there. But also likely some who had it and didn't know it or who had a mild case and never told me about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@awprokop Kinda wild that these numbers are so low. I'd guess that >50% of the people I know IRL have had COVID (mostly pre-vaccines but some breakthroughs). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@wwwojtekk We'd mostly avoided a resurgence of antivax sentiment on the left but it was always a safe bet that things would get even stupider! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trvrb How plausible is it that Omicron and Delta co-circulate for an extended period of time (perhaps depending on the mix of immunity in a particular area)? Should we be working on boosters that target both variants? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini The median voter probably has a better holistic perspective on COVID than the median person active on politics Twitter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Omicron turns out to be less of a game-changer than feared, I'm sure people will attack the experts, but FWIW most of the experts I trust *have* done a good job of expressing uncertainty, even if those subtleties sometimes get lost by headline writers & cable news producers. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Yeah I agree with all of this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro To be fair a lot of public health officials including Walensky were pro-boosters the whole time. There's a certain subset of them, who in my view tend to foreground ideological considerations (putting that politely) and who also tend to be very active in the media, who weren't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you don't want your audience to panic you don't do it by saying "don't panic", you do it with measured and accurate coverage that avoids emotionally-laden anecdotes or narratives. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Kevmath: Day 3 of the @SHRHollyPoker @WPT $3,500 Rock ‘n’ Roll Poker Open Championship starts at noon with 63 players with @NateSilver5… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Unless something has changed since I lived there, not a lot of hotels in Wrigleyville. Just stay somewhere nice, Chicago should have some extremely affordable hotels off-season, and take cabs or the train. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Uhhhh — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan Yeah, and this is a case where there are some real incentives to buy time between Paxlovid and potentially delaying saturation of B.1.1.529 (if it's as bad as feared) until the weather warms up. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our public health agencies weren't in any particular hurry to approve boosters, or vaccines for children, and aren't in any particular hurry to approve a pill that could reduce deaths by 89%, so odds are that we'll be too slow on the draw again. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Not sure that's in the top 5 of questions I have about this menu. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This ticket would probably win 532 electoral votes (not sure about Utah tbh). https://t.co/TomdGEzVva — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro https://t.co/1YhooMfHiu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thegarance It's also probably hard for Democrats to get their voters to buy into the threat when they control the presidency and Congress (and governorships in many states). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I used to think that if an election were actually overturned or stolen, a real possibility in the years ahead, you'd have mass protests on a scale not seen in my lifetime. But I don't know, now I wonder if it might be Just Another Thing That People Argue About. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be clear, I think the elites are correct (IMO democracy is indeed facing a major threat). But this poll raises questions about why that message isn't breaking through to the public. With so much other news, I don't know that elites have always been very focused on the threat. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hadn't seen this poll, but whoa, if only 35% of Democratic voters think democracy is facing a major threat (71% of Republicans do, by contrast!) that speaks to a major disconnect between Democratic elites and rank-and-file voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias It came up with New York for me, where I live, so I guess that's good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Something for everyone in this podcast. Why I'm pessimistic about the future of liberal democracy in the United States. On a brighter note: my favorite restaurants in Vegas! https://t.co/IXJ3yuTnuo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, Trump has a lot of liabilities and might be *less* electable relative to a "generic" Republican. But (i) if you don't think he *could* win, you're a fool; (ii) that's not the only consideration (i.e. win or lose, a Trump nomination has lots of consequences for the country). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean, Trump wasn't that far from winning last time. And while they aren't worth a ton at this stage, polls show Trump in a highly competitive hypothetical 2024 matchup vs. Biden given his deteriorated standing, and generally ahead of Harris. https://t.co/de6e1opDuN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro On some level people who rely on this sort of column to make basic life decisions probably deserve their fate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @trvrb: Something is clearly wrong with @CDCGov vaccination coverage data. The dashboard at https://t.co/axIvRnKbwK reports that 99.7% (… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro @mattyglesias I did see one confrontation over masks (rich jerk yelling at craps dealer) and enforcement was more vigorous at some venues than others. But overall people managed to live with it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Was sort of weird to be in purple-ish Las Vegas for a month which has a mask mandate and then return to New York which doesn't (fair amount of voluntary masking here though the etiquette is pretty inconsistent). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@richardmskinner @mattyglesias The one confounder is that there was a pretty nonlinear increase in concern about the Delta variant that coincided with the withdraw. Still, both things contributed to the sense that Biden was not restoring order and normality. — PolitiTweet.org