Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AllenKessler I feel like people overcomplicate this and the solution is to have much stricter enforcement of using your phone when you have live cards and you can do ~whatever on your phone when you don't. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow Yeah, imputation definitely possible. It's inherently kind of crazy how much of the regular season NBA betting market is just about making guesses/imputations about player availability. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow It's a little tricky because a lot of expectations about load management are priced into the market. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One should be wary of claims about what the expert consensus is absent some formal, ideally anonymized method of surveying experts. We've seen that on climate change, which is one reason you truly can say there's a consensus around it, but not with lots of other issues. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Maybe negative partisanship of progressive "orthodoxy-enforcers" toward "contrarians". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think the contour is probably best described as low decoupling vs high decoupling. https://t.co/YBMpzYQMkg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of latent contours of political discourse. Like, I have an instinctive nails-on-chalkboard aversion to a certain type of person who's involved on the other side of this particular argument and I'm almost sure the feeling is mutual. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not even that partisan though! The Democratic White House is thoroughly investating it. There's not really any ideological principle at play. That's why I find it so weird that a few people are still so dug in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's worse still coming from people who style themselves as *journalists*. Again, 6.8 million people have died! Much of the world was shut down for a year! Future pandemics are a big threat! Any self-respecting journalist should be "just asking questions" about COVID origins. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I honestly don't understand the remaining streak of anti-lab leak discourse from the left. Various agencies within the *Biden White House* have decided that it's important to investigate and a lab leak is quite plausible. It's a big, important question. Just take the 'L'! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's a virus that killed 6.8 million people! If you ask me, we should limit gain of function research either way. But the debate about COVID origins is ***extremely*** consequential compared to the stupid shit people constantly argue about on here. https://t.co/FvArccxsXW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum There were rather explicit and active efforts to control the narrative around lab leak discourse, including by scientists with some pretty bad conflicts of interest. https://t.co/gDsKdGb9Xt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I certainly don't think "the truth always wins out", but I also think professional media people have extremely naive theories about what happens when they try to suppress information they don't like. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 He's borderline unplayable against smart defenses. Should probably be coming off the bench in the playoffs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JADubin5 RJ leads the league in ability to get to the rim crossed with no idea what to do once he gets there. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason this drives me up the wall is that if you're ever going to pretend that "misinformation" is a useful category, at least acknowledge it was a massive error to label lab leak discussion as "misinformation" when multiple US government agencies now put the chances ≥50%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is so refreshingly honest. The Bad People thought the lab leak might be true, therefore as journalists we couldn't be expected to actually evaluate the evidence for it. https://t.co/NueOdLLAol — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm generally an optimist about how humans behave as individuals and a pessimist about how they behave in groups. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm quite talented at attracting criticism from people I intuitively despise; feel like this should be easier to monetize. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of the most pathetic things to exchange your integrity for is cable news hits. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesFallows I'm a fan of yours James but just curious: Did you read my tweet? I'm not saying I'n convinced there was a lab leak. I'm saying it was a horrible mistake to treat discussion of a lab leak as a conspiracy theory and it really undermined trust in science. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's the The Nation on some of the backstory. Not exactly some sort of flaming right-wing outlet. https://t.co/gDsKdGb9Xt — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The tweet says that suppressing discussion of this issue was a terrible mistake and undermined trust in science. It does not say "OMG lab leak 100%". I'm probably in the 60/40ish camp myself. But I've never seen a group of scientists behave as poorly as they did on this issue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Welp. The behavior of a certain cadre of scientists who used every trick in the book to suppress discussion of this issue is something I'll never forget. A huge disservice to science and public health. They should be profoundly embarrassed. https://t.co/nZqzjrvo8F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Herring_NBA Looking pretty safe now for 2nd highest scoring game in NBA history. Might need 3OT for 1st! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. I don't think the new study (Cochrane) claiming no evidence masks are effective is anywhere near as definitive as it claims, but that's because my prior was already "masks only marginally effective unless KN95 worn rigorously" despite headlines making far stronger claims. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sorry for such an On Brand Tweet but the media could really stand to be more Bayesian when describing the results of new academic studies. Pretty rare that your priors should move very much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Remember when VP Walter Mondale challenged his own president, Jimmy Carter, for the Democratic nomination? ChatGPT does. One of the worst "hallucinations" I've seen. https://t.co/Vvrc7wFHTj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hey come see us in New York! April 19! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @LodgePokerClub: The return of @TheBradOwen! He's back for today's $50/$100 stream that also features Mariano, @NateSilver538, @JamieKe… — PolitiTweet.org